RIGA - The Verkhovna Rada and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are beginning to think about the civilized direction and control of the armed forces after the change of the commander of the Ukrainian army, historian and political analyst Karlis Dauksts told LETA.
He noted that former Ukrainian army chief Valery Zaluzhny had gained quite a lot of psychological power among the troops, officers and enlisted men. The new Commander, Oleksandr Syrsky, is seen more as a war mathematician.
"He is now developing tactics of attack rather than outright assault with the desire to immediately recapture villages and push his forces towards them. Syrsky is moving towards concentrating forces in certain directions, which is logical. There cannot be a counter-attack along the entire front line," the political analyst pointed out.
In his opinion, the very serious situation with Avdiivka is also linked to the fact that the commander of the Ukrainian army has been replaced. According to Dauksts, Ukraine is experiencing not very clear movements in the military sphere - changes in tactics and strategy. He stressed that we have yet to see what the consequences of this change will be.
"Syrsky has ordered a withdrawal from Avdiivka, but it is not clear, because it was already offered to Zelensky by Zaluzhny. How far this can go is difficult for me to say, but it cannot be denied that Putin needs a military success before the upcoming sociological poll - I cannot call it an election ," the political analyst pointed out.
He also stressed that Ukraine is forced to think about its internal military potential in the absence of large military supplies from the West. According to Dauksts, they need to think about developing their own military industry, which they are already doing successfully, as evidenced by the sinking of the Russian Black Sea landing ship Cezar Kunikov.
"This shows that the Ukrainians must continue to focus on developing their military capabilities, which in itself will enable them to move away from relying solely on Western supplies," the political analyst said.
Asked what the challenges are for Western countries with the delay in military support, whether it could mean that reserves are exhausted while the military industry has not yet taken off, Dauksts concluded that the West has not only missed Russia's military potential, but has also failed to develop a precise analysis and strategic plan for the longer term.
"I don't think Russia will succeed in destroying the West's potential military production capabilities, but there are geopolitical strategic issues here. The admission of Finland and soon Sweden to NATO brings a different perspective to the so-called Suwalki Corridor. Its importance has decreased in purely strategic terms, so the changes are very different in the strategic planning itself," Dauksts explained.
He also mentioned internal security in Latvia and the change in public sentiment. According to Dauksts, 90 percent of people living in Latvia who are so-called Russian speakers support the aggressive policies of regime leader Putin. The political scientist has his thoughts on why they do so, but this opinion was precisely formulated by Adolf Hitler in 1945, the day before his suicide.
"He said that the Russians would be the ones realizing his ideas and that the Nazi elements would be so strong that they would influence the rest of the world. He pointed to Russia's role in this direction, and that is why it worries me that Russian Nazi ideology has reached many people in Latvia too, which makes it impossible to build a united society," the political scientist noted.
Speaking about possible peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, which are not supported by either the Ukrainian political leadership or the public, Dauksts pointed out that these issues are almost impossible to resolve on the diplomatic front. According to him, the diplomatic front will depend on the results of military successes or losses on the battlefield.
"It is difficult to quote the scoundrel [Joseph] Stalin, but in 1943 he said that as far as his tanks would go, so far would his system go. That is his formula. Unfortunately, this formula is terrible, while at the same time it retains its practical and pragmatic basis in Russia. That is why, in my opinion, all those hopes of diverting the Russian financial assets frozen in the West to the development and reconstruction of Ukraine are still very much in the air. As for 2024, I think this year and spring will be the point on which the scales are tipped and the question is which way they will tip in relation to all the developments around Ukraine," the political analyst said.
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