In recent years, the Taiwan Strait and the Baltic Sea have emerged as focal points of geopolitical tension, with undersea infrastructure such as communication cables and gas pipelines increasingly under threat from intensified grey zone tactics employed by China and Russia. These tactics, which fall short of open warfare, include sabotage, espionage, and other forms of covert aggression, posing significant challenges to the security and stability of the region. As these threats escalate, the urgency for Taiwan and countries in the Baltic region to collaborate and address these common challenges has never been more critical.
Undersea infrastructure is the backbone of global communication and energy networks. Submarine cables carry over 95% of international data, facilitating everything from internet traffic to financial transactions. Similarly, undersea pipelines are crucial for transporting natural gas and oil, vital resources for energy security and economic stability. The Taiwan Strait and the Baltic Sea are home to extensive networks of these infrastructures, making them strategic targets for nations seeking to exert influence or disrupt regional stability.
Grey Zone Warfare threatens critical infrastructure security
Grey zone tactics are characterized by their ambiguity and deniability, allowing states to achieve strategic objectives without crossing the threshold of open conflict. In the Taiwan Strait, China has increasingly employed such tactics to assert its claims over Taiwan and project power in the region. This includes deploying naval and air assets to intimidate Taiwan and conducting cyber operations targeting its critical infrastructure.
Similarly, in the Baltic Sea, Russia has been accused of using grey zone tactics to undermine the security of neighboring countries. This includes alleged sabotage of undersea cables and pipelines, jamming GPS signals and other satellite based navigation systems, as well as cyberattacks on critical infrastructure. These actions are part of a broader strategy to destabilize the region and weaken the cohesion of NATO and the European Union.
Incidents in the Taiwan Strait raising alarm over rising threats and risks
Taiwan experiences near-daily incursion into Taiwan’s waters and airspace by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. Last month, China sent nearly 90 naval and coast guard vessels into the area. China has also deployed militarized fishing boats and its coast guard fleet in disputed waters around the South China Sea, and stepped up patrols just a few miles off the shore of Taiwan’s outer islands, increasing the risk of dangerous confrontations. This type of harassment has been a hallmark of Chinese coercion against Taiwan for decade.
In recent years, there have been several incidents involving Chinese vessels that have raised concerns about the security of undersea cables linking Taiwan and its outlying islands. These cables are crucial for maintaining communication and data transfer between Taiwan and its territories, as well as with the broader international community. One notable incident occurred in February 2023, when two Chinese vessels damaged two critical submarine internet cables linked to Taiwan’s outlying island of Matsu. This disruption led to significant communication outages for weeks affecting both civilian and military operations in the region. Despite the evidence pointing to the involvement of the Chinese vessels, the incident was met with denial from Chinese authorities, who refused to take responsibility or offer compensation for the damages incurred.
On January 3rd, an undersea cable off Taiwan’s northern city Keelung, connecting to South Korea, Japan and the US, known as the Trans-Pacific Express Cable was damaged. That afternoon, Taiwan’s Coast Guard intercepted a Chinese-owned cargo vessel Shunxing 39, with seven Chinese nationals onboard, in the area where half a dozen cables make landfall, including the damaged one. The freighter is registered under the flags of both Cameroon and Tanzania, but reportedly owned by a Hong Kong company with links to mainland China.
Such incidents highlight a pattern of behavior where Chinese vessels operate in Taiwan and contested waters, often engaging in activities that result in damage to undersea infrastructure. These actions are typically followed by a lack of accountability, as China remains at large, avoiding any consequences for its actions. This pattern not only undermines regional stability but also poses a significant threat to Taiwan's security and economic interests. The international community has expressed concern over these incidents, calling for greater transparency and accountability from China to prevent further damage to critical undersea infrastructure. However, the lack of enforcement mechanisms and China's strategic interests in the region have made it challenging to hold them accountable, leaving Taiwan and its allies to seek alternative measures to protect their vital communication links.
China and Russia's shadow fleet increasingly threaten Baltic Sea undersea infrastructure
In 2023, the maritime community was rocked by the incident involving the vessel New New Polar Bear, which inadvertently caused significant damage to undersea cables in the Baltic Sea. This incident highlighted the vulnerability of undersea infrastructure to both natural and human-induced events. The incident underscored the need for improved maritime navigation systems and more robust protective measures for undersea cables. In response, regional authorities have called for stricter regulations on maritime operations in proximity to critical infrastructure and have initiated discussions on deploying advanced monitoring technologies to prevent similar occurrences in the future.
In November 2024, further challenges emerged as vessel registered under the Cook Islands flag was implicated in a series of incidents that damaged both undersea cables and gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea. The resulting damage to the infrastructure between Estonia, Finland, and Sweden caused significant disruptions to energy supplies and communications. The incidents prompted a reevaluation of international maritime regulations, particularly concerning the oversight of vessels registered under flags of convenience. Additionally, these events highlighted the strategic importance of the Baltic Sea's undersea infrastructure and the potential geopolitical implications of its vulnerability. In response, the affected countries have increased their collaborative efforts to enhance the resilience of their critical infrastructure, including investing in advanced detection systems and fostering international cooperation to ensure stricter compliance with maritime safety standards. The summit taking place in Helsinki on January 14th, bringing together Baltic Sea coastal leaders and the NATO Secretary General, is both timely and crucial for addressing the significant threats posed by China and Russia’s shadow fleet.
The Urgency of Regional Cooperation
The challenges posed by grey zone warfare in the Taiwan Strait and Baltic Sea highlight the need for regional cooperation to enhance the resilience of undersea infrastructure. Taiwan and countries in the Baltic region share common interests in safeguarding their critical infrastructure from external threats and ensuring the stability of their respective regions.
For Taiwan, strengthening ties with like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific region, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, is crucial. These countries face similar challenges from China's assertive behavior and can benefit from sharing intelligence, best practices, and technological solutions to protect undersea infrastructure. In the Baltic region, cooperation among NATO and EU member states is essential to counter Russian aggression. This includes enhancing joint surveillance and monitoring capabilities, conducting regular exercises to improve response readiness, and investing in technologies to detect and mitigate threats to undersea infrastructure.
Addressing the challenges posed by grey zone warfare requires a multifaceted approach that combines technological innovation with strategic policy measures. Investing in advanced monitoring and surveillance technologies, such as autonomous underwater vehicles and sensor networks, can help detect and deter potential threats to undersea infrastructure.
Additionally, enhancing cybersecurity measures is critical to protecting the integrity of communication networks and preventing cyberattacks on critical infrastructure. This includes implementing robust encryption protocols, conducting regular security audits, and fostering collaboration between public and private sectors to share threat intelligence and best practices. On a strategic level, countries in the Taiwan Strait and Baltic Sea regions must strengthen their diplomatic efforts and military alliances to deter potential aggressors. This includes reaffirming commitments to collective defense agreements, conducting joint military exercises, and enhancing interoperability among allied forces.
Navigating the Future
The challenges posed by grey zone tactics in the Taiwan Strait and Baltic Sea underscore the need for vigilance and cooperation in safeguarding undersea infrastructure. As China and Russia continue to employ covert strategies to achieve their geopolitical objectives, Taiwan and countries in the Baltic region must work together to enhance the resilience of their critical infrastructure and deter potential threats.
By investing in advanced technologies, strengthening regional alliances, and fostering a culture of collaboration and information sharing, the like-minded countries can navigate the complexities of the modern geopolitical landscape and ensure the security and stability of their undersea infrastructure. In doing so, they not only protect their own interests but also contribute to the broader goal of maintaining peace and stability in their respective regions.
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