Trump's latest shift in rhetoric on Russia signals a possible easing on Ukraine - researcher

RIGA - US President Donald Trump's position on Russia and the war in Ukraine has changed again after his talks with Vladimir Putin, and these abrupt changes in rhetoric raise concerns about US policy, Armands Astukevics, a researcher at the Center for East European Policy Studies, told LETA.

According to him, Trump's latest statement on social networks after his call with Putin reflects a trend that has been observed for a long time - Trump frequently changes his rhetoric on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and on possible solutions.

Astukevics noted that until recently, at the UN General Assembly, Trump took a tough line, calling Russia a "paper tiger" in the economic sphere and stressing Ukraine's ability to win the war, but after his conversation with Putin, the rhetoric has become softer. The researcher explained that this change could also be linked to Russian tactics and Putin's ability to personally influence the US President.

"Putin, by interacting with President Trump, is able to disarm him in some way and map out vectors of cooperation," Astukevics said, adding that Russia is using this for manipulative purposes.

The researcher stressed that the Russian side uses different rhetorical tones, from threats by former President Dmitry Medvedev to Putin's "charm offensive". The expert concluded that Putin, as a former member of the USSR State Security Committee, is skilled in working with people and is able to win them over to his side.

He pointed out that it is difficult to predict how the meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will develop at the moment, as the US President's positions are changing very rapidly. According to him, Trump might not be so tough on the delivery of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine or on support for the retaking of its territories, but will talk more about finding a negotiating path.

Astukevics referred to Trump's statement on talks related to economic cooperation between Russia and the US. In his view, this could be another point of strength that Russia will try to play on. It is also unclear how receptive the US will be, or whether there will be a backlash from Ukraine, from European Union leaders who will try to change the way the US administration thinks about Russia and the war in Ukraine.

He noted that the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin in Budapest could also be used as a foreign policy victory for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. In his view, this choice of venue is significant in itself and in line with Orban's strategy of seeking dialogue with Russia.

According to Astukevics, Russia will continue to use such talks to make political gains without taking real steps to end the war. He stressed that Russia will try to steer US policy away from a tougher stance towards Moscow and a weaker position of support for Ukraine.

He also added that Trump's policy is largely based on his personal feelings rather than a coherent strategy. Astukevics compared it to a "black box" - it is unclear how events will unfold because Trump's policies are driven by his own feelings rather than a step-by-step plan.