The fall of Assad has undermined Russia's prestige in the Middle East - Israeli expert

RIGA - Russia has long presented itself as a global power that wins wars and supports its allies, so the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria has thoroughly undermined Russia's image in the Middle East, Israeli Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Rakov, an expert on Russian information operations and Russian Middle East policy, told LETA in an interview.

"When ally Assad was in trouble, Russia formed a coalition with Hizbollah and Iran and came to his aid. Since this way it managed to stabilize Assad's power and increase the territory under his control, it only confirmed this superpower status, proof of which is the Russian military bases in Syria, which serve as an attribute of the superpower. Now all those ten years of investment have been lost," Rakov said.

He believes that the Russians had given up hope of securing the Assad regime because the regime itself had lost the will to fight. Moreover, the Russians themselves are busy in Ukraine. Now Moscow is trying to minimize its losses, and their priority is the military bases in Syria.

"The Russians realize that their position is weak, but there is a chance that they could keep these bases. If they succeed, Russia will at least remain a party in Syria and continue its Syria game," the expert pointed out.

He believes that Russia gave Assad and his family asylum because Moscow did not want to see Assad killed or humiliated, because then people would say that the same would soon happen to Putin himself. As Russia continues to invest in other 'client states', it also wanted to send the message that even if they fail to maintain their regimes, Moscow will at least have a refuge for them.

"This is another message to maintain Russia's superpower image," Rakov concludes.

In his view, however, Russia's prestige in the region has been badly damaged because Syria was the center of Russia's presence.

"Middle Eastern countries started to communicate with Russia because they realized that Moscow was capable of achieving results. However, the current situation shows that no one can count on Russia to save them. This is a blow to Russia's image as a strong military power capable of restoring the strength of its 'clients'. It is now clear to all that Russia is no giant, but it is also clear that it is no lilliputian," Rakov said, but also added that some actors in the Middle East need Russia's support to counter Western influence.

Rakov is convinced that Russia's fate will be decided in Ukraine. If Russia is defeated, it will be a disaster for its image of power in the Middle East. If Ukraine is defeated, or at least if Russia achieves some kind of ceasefire that can be presented as a victory, then the prevailing view will be that the Kremlin has militarily confronted the entire Western world but still managed to defend its interests. This will also have an impact on the Middle East, he points out.

It should be borne in mind that after the end of the war, the Russian military-industrial complex will be able to resume arms exports to the Middle East and other regions, so Russia will be able to regain some of its position, he added.

Russia has developed relations with many Middle East actors, including close relations with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, with which Moscow cooperates in OPEC+ to coordinate oil prices.

Rakov has no doubt that Russia will continue to coordinate its actions with Iran.

"Paradoxically, cooperation between Russia and Iran will only get stronger, because until now they have been competing with each other to some extent for power in Syria, and Iran was concerned about a possible rapprochement between Russia and Israel. Now that both countries have failed in Syria, they are still very important to each other in order to take coordinated action to regain their positions. Even if Russia leaves its bases in Syria, it will remain active in the Middle East," the expert said.

In the course of the current war, Iran has been hit hard and faces a serious dilemma: it needs to reorganize itself, reassert its "clients". There is also the question of whether to develop its nuclear program, as such a move would create a whole new set of threats for Iran, Rakov said.

He summarized that the entire axis created by Iran has been hit hard: Israel has weakened Hamas and severely punished Hizbollah, which has led Iran to engage directly in the conflict, and throughout this period Israel has carried out attacks on Iranian, Syrian and Hizbollah targets in Syria, which has strengthened the rebels who have seized this opportunity.

Rakov reminds that Iran was also initially happy about the premature and apparently uncoordinated attack by Hamas on October 7, as Israel suffered heavily, which showed that it was not so invulnerable either. This was followed by Hizbollah rocket attacks, to which Israel was unable to react immediately because it was occupied in Gaza. Then Iran itself launched an unprecedented ballistic missile attack on Israel. "In April, the mood in Iran was good because Israel could only defend itself," said the expert.

He points out that Hamas is now almost non-existent as a military organization and Hizbollah is severely weakened, Israel has repeatedly retaliated against the Houthis in Yemen and has also struck inside Iran, highlighting vulnerabilities in Iran's defense system. The Syrian regime, so important for Iranian policy, no longer exists either.

"It has become apparent that there are many cracks in this Iranian firewall against Israel," said the expert, pointing out that all Iranian strategies since the end of its war with Iraq in 1988 have been to shield Iranian territory from direct military activity, yet Israel has carried out several attacks on Iranian territory.

"Iran is important for Russia, but less important than two years ago, when the Kremlin's lightning war in Ukraine failed and Russia lacked arms, but Iran was ready to supply its drones and other weapons. Apart from North Korea and possibly Belarus, no other country has helped Russia so much. The Russians were even dependent on Iranian supplies at that time. This is no longer the case," Rakov said.

He added that military cooperation remains fruitful for both sides, as both countries have developed military industries, are under sanctions, and therefore have nothing to lose by cooperating with each other.

Rakov believes that relations with Iran are also important for the Russian economy, as Iran plays an important role in the Russians' ambition to create a new trade corridor to sell their goods to Asia. In the past, cooperation between the two countries was mainly political, but now it has become much more balanced, with the addition of a security economy component.

The expert pointed out that Iran is a medium-sized player, one of the most isolated countries in the world, surrounded by enemies, and therefore needs all the allies it can get.

"So, two years ago Iran needed Russia more, but now it is Russia that needs Iran more. Despite various clashes of interests and mutual lack of trust, the two countries have no choice but to work together," Rakov summarized.