Russia may activate targeted information and psychological operations and disinformation campaigns during the active phase of Zapad - military intelligence

RIGA - Russia may activate targeted information and psychological operations, as well as disinformation campaigns during the active phase of the Zapad-2025 exercises, including against the Namejs 2025 exercise in Latvia, the Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIDD) told LETA.

In its publication, the MIDD pointed out that Russia conducts strategic exercises in a different strategic direction every year, which is why the Zapad exercise is usually held every four years in western Russia. Unlike other years' strategic exercises (Vostok, Centr and Kavkaz), a significant part of Zapad is conducted in cooperation with the Belarusian Armed Forces.

Russia has limited resources to organize strategic exercises since its invasion of Ukraine. In 2022, it was still able to organize the Vostok-2022 exercise, but in 2023 neither the Centr-2023 exercise, which corresponds to the usual training cycle, nor the Zapad-2023 exercise, which was announced as an emergency exercise, took place. In 2024, the naval-oriented exercise Okean-2024 took place with minimal involvement of land forces.

Strategic exercises are organized to test the capability of the armed forces to conduct military operations at the strategic level, to test their command and control system, and to test new weapons and tactical elements of operations. This year, one of the objectives of Russia's strategic exercises is to demonstrate that not all of its forces are involved in the war against Ukraine and that Moscow is able to organize routine military activities in the current circumstances.

It is possible to form troop formations under the cover of strategic exercises that can be used for a real attack, but so far there is no indication that this is being prepared under the cover of Zapad-2025.

Zapad-2025 was officially announced to take place from September 12 to 16, but has been underway since July this year and is likely to conclude with a strategic nuclear exercise in October or November, according to MIDD.

The Collective Security Treaty Organization exercise in Belarus is part of Russia's strategic exercises. It is Moscow's way of involving partner countries in strategic exercises to demonstrate unity. Thus, it can be said that the active phase of Zapad already started at the beginning of September.

Official statements say that Zapad-2025 will take place in Belarus, but in fact it will also take place at various training grounds throughout western Russia, including the Arctic and the Kaliningrad region.

The Zapad exercise scenario envisages warfare in the Western strategic direction. Accordingly, following an attack by unfriendly states, Russia and Belarus would jointly defend, regroup and counter-attack. In the sequence of training elements in real action, the reverse can be played out - attack first, then defense.

The exercise ends with a simulated nuclear strike, which is not a formal part of the strategic exercise. The nuclear strike in the exercise scenario is believed to be aimed at deterring allies of occupied countries from providing military assistance, according to the MIDD publication.

No significant information and psychological operations against Latvia have yet been observed in the context of Zapad-2025, while the Kremlin-controlled actors continue to carry out routine information influence activities on a daily basis, mainly by disseminating pro-Kremlin propaganda, the Latvian special services said.

Over the past two months, the Kremlin-controlled information space has been intensifying reports that Zapad-2025 is a defense exercise, while NATO military exercises in Poland and the Baltic States allegedly pose a threat to Russia and Belarus. It is believed that Russia may activate targeted information and psychological operations and disinformation campaigns during the active phase of Zapad-2025, including against the Namejs 2025 exercise.

Irrespective of the Zapad exercise, the threat posed to Latvia by Russian and Belarusian intelligence and security services is continuous and targeted. Their activities are mainly aimed at obtaining intelligence information on Latvia's defense system in order to provide the political and military leadership of both countries with the necessary data for decision-making, as well as to regularly supply the armed forces with information for planning military operations, according to the MIDD publication.

The main source of intelligence threat to Latvia is the Russian and Belarusian military intelligence (GRU), which uses both technical capabilities from its own territory and an agency within Latvia.

The Zapad exercise scenario will serve as a platform for GRU activities, but no significant increase in their intensity is foreseeable at the moment.

At the same time, the MIDD has stressed that Russian special services are constantly involved in planning new sabotage and diversions in Europe, often through third parties. This is evidenced by a series of hostile activities in NATO and EU Member States that have been detected since at least the beginning of 2024, irrespective of the Zapad exercise.