Russia intensifies surveillance of NATO military activities in Baltic Sea - Latvian security service

RIGA - Russia is intensifying the surveillance of NATO military activities in the Baltic Sea, as well as carrying out shows of force and provocations, the Latvian Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIDD) said, commenting on Russian military activities in the vicinity of Latvia.

According to the threat assessment and the last year's activity report published by the service, Russia is carrying out shows of force and provocations, such as unauthorized airspace violations, aggressive approaches to aircraft and ships of NATO member states, thereby increasing the risk of accidental military incidents.

These provocations are likely aimed at intimidating and testing a potential adversary. At the same time, attempts to to discredit the response and defense capabilities of countries in the region cannot be ruled out either, according to the MIDD.

The intelligence service reveals that as part of the reform of the Russian armed forces in 2024, the Western Military District adjacent to Latvia's border was reorganized to form the Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts. This is Russia's formal response to the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, the MIDD explains.

The newly created Leningrad Military District is responsible for the north-western strategic axis, covering the Baltic States and Scandinavia. Meanwhile, the Moscow Military District is responsible for Central Europe and part of Ukraine and is likely to operate closely with the Belarusian armed forces, the report says.

The MIDD also notes that in parallel with the war in Ukraine, Russia has at least formally started forming new units and reforming existing forces in line with the declared plan for a reform of the armed forces. For example, a new army corps has been created in Karelia, while the two motorized rifle brigades of the 6th General Army closest to Latvia are being transformed into divisions. The Baltic Fleet Marine Infantry Brigade, stationed in the Kaliningrad Exclave, is to be transformed into a division.

The intelligence report explains that the creation or expansion of new military units does not yet imply a real increase of forces near Latvia's borders, as most of Russia's military resources are still being diverted to Ukraine.

The MIDD also stresses that the main priority for the ground forces is the training of mobilized personnel, reservists and contract soldiers prior to deployment to the war zone. The Latvian security service notes that the training process pays particular attention to the use of different types of unmanned aircraft systems.

In the air force and air defense units, the main activities are related to reconnaissance, show of force and countering Ukrainian drone systems and missiles fired at targets deep inside Russian territory. The MIDD concludes that during the three years of the war, Russia has never been able to fully defend its territory against this type of threat.

The report also notes that, following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian armed forces have limited training not only at the strategic level but also at the operational-tactical level, which is most likely due to a shortage of personnel and military equipment.

This year, Russia and Belarus are planning to hold a joint strategic exercise, Zapad-2025, which is to take place mainly on Belarusian territory, but the scale and the territory covered will largely depend on the situation in Russia's war against Ukraine, the service said.

As reported, the MIDD also projects that in the medium and long term, Russia will find it increasingly difficult to return to a peacetime economy, which in turn creates domestic demand to maintain an aggressive foreign policy and continue to arm itself.

The MIDD points out that Russia is undergoing a major military reform, which is planned to increase the size of its armed forces from one to one and a half million soldiers. The most significant changes are planned in the western strategic direction.

"It is likely to take several years, possibly even a decade, to achieve the full objectives of the reform, but it is expected that the size of the Russian armed forces on the Latvian border will start to increase as the intensity of hostilities in Ukraine decreases," the service said.

At the same time, the service stresses that in the current circumstances, Russia does not have the military capacity for another strategic-level ground operation.