Russia has no direct influence over the domestic policy of Lukashenko's regime - SAB

RIGA - Russia currently has no direct influence over the domestic policies implemented by Alexander Lukashenko's regime, but both sides do not want to allow domestic political instability similar to the 2020 protests, which Russia would see as a threat to its interests, according to the 2025 activity report published on Monday by the Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB).

At the same time, it is very likely that Russia will stifle the Lukashenko regime's efforts to restore relations with European countries if this is not in Moscow's interests, according to the SAB.

SAB information shows that Russia is sensitive to even minimal attempts by the Belarusian regime to pursue a more independent policy, despite Russia's growing influence in Belarus and its distinctly pro-Russian course. From Russia's point of view, Belarus' return to economic cooperation with European countries will facilitate the Lukashenko regime's multi-vector foreign policy and automatically reduce Russia's influence over Belarus.

On the other hand, a potential change in the Lukashenko regime that is not directly coordinated with Moscow will be perceived as a threat to Russia and its interests in Belarus, according to the SAB.

In the SAB's view, it is very likely that Belarus will play an increasingly important role not only in achieving Russia's military goals, but also its military-industrial goals, if Russia maintains its aggressive foreign policy towards Western countries.

The war in Ukraine confirms that, in the event of a military conflict, Belarus' civilian economy will also serve Russia's military interests. It is almost certain that, from the perspective of the Lukashenko regime, providing military-industrial assistance is the best way to support Russia in the war with Ukraine, as Belarus does not have to be directly involved in the hostilities, while the regime is assured of economic and financial gains, according to the SAB.