Political scientist warns Western passport holders risk hostage in Russia

TALLINN - Igor Gretskiy, a political scientist at the Estonian International Center for Defense and Security, writes in Diplomaatia, a magazine published by the center, that anyone with a Western passport could easily become a hostage in Russia.

"From the moment a person with a Western passport crosses the Russian border, they become a potential hostage," Gretskiy writes, criticizing the recent Russia-West prisoner swap as unfair. "A closer look at the exchange lists raises additional concerns. In reality, Russia traded its GRU and FSB officers for foreigners who had fallen victim to their own carelessness, adventurism, and at times, lack of professionalism."

Gretskiy condemns the situation where Western governments exchanged Russian assassins, hackers, and spies -- whose activities were aimed at inflicting maximum damage on their countries' security -- for their own citizens.

"Western intelligence agencies had to conduct long and complex operations, constrained by strict democratic procedures, to capture these individuals. Often, their extradition required negotiations with other countries, as was the case with the Russian hacker Vladislav Klyushin, connected to the GRU," Gretskiy writes. "Considering the resources spent on capturing these individuals, it's clear that this prisoner exchange is anything but fair."

Gretskiy notes that the White House was the most interested in the exchange. The release of US citizens Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan, and Alsu Kurmasheva was primarily needed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the current administration ahead of crucial presidential elections. To make the exchange with Russia possible, US President Joe Biden had to reach an agreement with European allies, as they held the most valuable Russian agents. His main argument was likely that the exchange could help Kamala Harris win the presidential election, thereby preventing the unpredictability in US foreign policy that a Donald Trump administration would bring.

"Thus, it seems that the justification for this 'historic exchange' is directly tied to the outcome of the US presidential election. However, this practice carries significant consequences," Gretskiy warns. "Exchanging hostages for spies sets a dangerous precedent that could encourage Russia to intensify its active measures in the West, thereby increasing security risks for Western countries. By sending more of its intelligence officers to 'unfriendly countries,' Putin can be confident that he will be able to continuously trade them for foreigners or Russian political activists. With no official ban on travel to Russia, the Kremlin will always find candidates to add to its exchange pool."

Gretskiy concludes that while the recent prisoner exchange between Russia and Western countries was beneficial in the context of freeing innocent people, exchanging hostages held by authoritarian regimes for professional spies could, if it becomes a trend, pose significant security challenges for the West.