One of the objectives of Ukraine's invasion of Kursk region could be establishment of a foothold in Russia's core territory - military analyst

RIGA - One of Ukraine's goals in the Kursk region could be to establish a foothold in Russia's core territory, which could be played as a card in potential negotiations, military analyst Martins Verdins told LETA.

He stressed that currently all available information is based on Russian sources, while Ukraine continues to conceal its real objectives and directions quite successfully. According to the expert, the invasion could have two possible objectives. The first target could be a strategic facility, the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, located 90 kilometers from the border. It is possible that the second objective is the creation of a foothold in Russia's core territory, which could be played as a card and a bargaining chip in any negotiations.

"If we assume that Russia would now be willing to trade with Ukraine for territories where it stays or where it retreats, then theoretically the establishment of a foothold in Russia's core territory gives Ukraine another argument in negotiations, if there are any," the expert explained. In his view, the Kursk NPP is not a possible primary target, as the breach was carried out on a fairly broad front and entry into Russian territory was limited to 15 to 20 kilometers in the early days, but the NPP is located much further away. "If the target had been the NPP, the incursion would have been more focused, faster and aimed at a specific object, which in principle the Ukrainians could have reached at the very first moment," the military analyst said.

The Ukrainians succeeded in the first phase of the operation, which was to conceal the preparations for the operation from the opponent and also from the allies, Verdins said. In his opinion, the Ukrainians succeeded perfectly because there were no leaks of information, so the enemy had not prepared and moved additional forces to the area. The military analyst stressed that the Ukrainians had carried out the first phase and the second phase, which was the unimpeded entry into Russian territory and the seizure of settlements, perfectly.

In his view, the next task is to expand and consolidate the foothold that the Ukrainians have established. According to the expert, whereas a few days ago it was said that there were about 300, 500 soldiers at the peak of the Ukrainian offensive, now there is a second echelon of at least one or two battalions, which makes it a brigade-level operation with 1,000, possibly more, Ukrainian soldiers. The military analyst stressed that if Russia wants to push Ukraine out of the area, it will have to build up to a threefold superiority, and there is no suggestion that retaking the area will be easy or even possible.

Verdins admitted that Russia could take troops from other parts of the front. To regain territory, Russia needs to provide quality mechanised units, as at the time of the breach the Ukrainians were facing lightly armed conscripts, border guards and individuals from the Ahmat militia. He stressed that it was not difficult for the Ukrainians to overcome such resistance.

In summary, Verdins said that there were two objectives at the moment: to establish a foothold and to force the enemy to withdraw its forces from other sectors of the front, i.e. to reduce its forces elsewhere in order to solve the problem in the Kursk region. He said that this makes the situation easier in other sectors of the front. In order to deal with the problems caused by Ukraine in the Kursk region, Russia will have to draw on its reserves, which it lacks, or withdraw additional forces from other sectors of the front, which will make the situation easier for the Ukrainians in the places from which these forces will be withdrawn.

In his view, it does not mean that the Ukrainians will "hold on" to the foothold - even if they were to leave it in an organised way, they would still win in terms of information. According to the expert, Ukraine has already won because Vladimir Putin was forced to convene a special meeting on the situation. He stressed that this does not bode well for Russia's armed forces, intelligence and response capabilities. It should also be noted that the border areas in this frontline area were not evacuated, for example, in Belgorod Oblast a 15-kilometer zone is almost free of civilians, but this was not the case in Kursk Oblast. He noted that the evacuation was chaotic, which informatively works against the Kremlin regime.