No signs Russia or Belarus could attack NATO countries - Lithuanian parlt committee chair

VILNIUS - Giedrimas Jeglinskas, chairman of Lithuania's parliamentary Committee on National Security and Defense (CNSD), said on Tuesday that there are currently no indications that Russia or Belarus could attack NATO countries.

Jeglinskas' remarks came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on the Bucharest Nine and Nordic leaders in Vilnius on Monday to seek intelligence on Belarus' plans during this fall's Zapad military drills.

"Our intelligence services have a clear picture of what's happening in Belarus. NATO countries' intelligence sees it too. Right now, there are no indications that Russia, let alone Belarus, could or would be able to carry out a conventional attack on NATO countries," the committee chairman told reporters.

Russia and Belarus are planning to hold the 2025 edition of Zapad, a large-scale military exercise typically held every two years since 2009, in September. The drills, which were skipped in 2023, always raise concerns among officials in neighboring countries about the risk of unintentional incidents.

Jeglinskas said Zelensky's comments reflect the Ukrainian leader's typical rhetorical approach.

"This is a fairly characteristic style for President Zelensky - he often hints that NATO should be more prepared, that Russia or Belarus might strike at any moment. We have to stay alert and understand the context in which he's speaking," he said.

His remarks were echoed by Laurynas Kasciunas, CNSD vice-chairman and former defense minister, who noted that Zelensky, having previously faced attacks from Belarusian territory, is in a state of war and sees things "through an unconventional lens."

"We are taking this very seriously as well, but at this moment there's no intelligence-based data with clear indicators - keeping in mind that Western and NATO intelligence is the strongest in the world - of anything unusual or non-standard, or beyond our control," the conservative MP said.

"That goes for the Zapad drills and for other developments," he added.

Minsk announced last week that it would scale back the Zapad military exercise with Russia planned for September, cutting the number of troops involved in the drills and moving them away from the western border.

The country's defense minister said the move was meant "to demonstrate to our allies and partners around the world the truly peace-loving position of the Republic of Belarus."

Jeglinskas said that despite the announced reduction, the exercise will as usual involve scenarios centered on confrontation with NATO.

"The scenarios played out during these drills are clear - NATO is always included, whether it's an attack on the Alliance or a clash with its forces. That hasn't changed, and it doesn't alter the intentions of either Belarus or Russia to carry out offensive or, as they see it, defensive actions against NATO," he said.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has said that Tarassis 25 - a Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) exercise scheduled to run at the same time as Zapad - will be the largest since the multinational force was established.

The officially stated objectives of Zapad are to practice joint defensive and offensive operations, improve cooperation between the armed forces and test troops' readiness for various security scenarios.

In 2021, the drills involved around 200,000 troops from Russia, Belarus and some other countries. In 2022, Belarus and Russia held a major joint exercise, Union Resolve, which began two weeks before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.