No surefire candidate emerges in first week post-Paksas

VILNIUS - In the wake of Rolandas Paksas' dramatic removal from the presidency, Lithuania's mainstream political parties rushed to fill the ensuing political vacuum, initiating a crucial process necessary to return the country to normalcy and repair its tainted image abroad.

Within hours after the Seimas (Lithuania's parliament) made its historic vote on April 6 to strip Paksas, accused of three violations of his oath of office and the constitution, of his powers, speculation as to who might fill the political void has run rampant, reaching full speed after the Easter holiday.
Still, no clear candidate emerged with the exception of, ironically enough, Paksas himself. The former president, who deftly used the five months of impeachment to campaign across the country, is pegged to be the only surefire candidate for the presidency in the new round of elections, expected to be held in June.
Already on April 6, just hours after the impeachment vote, MP Rolandas Pavilionis, one of Paksas' most vocal backers, told reporters after meeting with the former president that Paksas had every intention of throwing his hat into the ring once again. News that Paksas, who still enjoys a high level of approval among provincial Lithuanians, intended to run infuriated leaders, who reacted by threatening the president with criminal investigation or an outright ban.
Acting Parliamentary Chairman Ceslovas Jursenas hinted that the Seimas might attempt to ban Paksas from participating in any future elections, while other MPs discussed the possibility of manipulating existing laws to block Paksas' presidential ambitions.

Prime Minister Algirdas Brazauskas was reported to have been visibly angry by the possibility of a candidate Paksas, saying he might even submit his candidacy just to put Paksas in his place.
"A lot will depend on the behavior of mister Paksas. It would be difficult for Europe to understand a president running for elections after impeachment. Europe does not understand these things. This is one of our problems," Brazauskas was quoted as saying.
The prime minister told Lithuanian Radio on April 13 that he saw little possibility of a single-candidate scenario and that his left-wing Social Democratic party would be fielding its own representative.
"To find one candidate that is completely acceptable to everybody-everybody from left to right-I don't think it's possible," he said.
While Brazauskas, who immediately went on vacation following the interview, did not rule out the possibility that he himself would run for president, within hours of his comments there was speculation that Jursenas would be the left's presidential candidate.
Jursenas' spokesperson said that the matter would be officially decided at a meeting of party leadership on April 17.
Analysts stressed that the prime minister or another prominent social democrat was certain to ballot.
"I think the situation is a simple one," said Algimantas Cekuolis, a prominent television journalist with close contacts in the Social Democratic party. "If Paksas runs, Brazauskas will run too. He's viewed as a strong candidate who can defeat Paksas. If Paksas doesn't run, they'll nominate Jursenas, and Brazauskas will remain prime minister."
Still, immediately following Brazauskas' declaration of a schism, parties on the opposite end of the political spectrum announced intentions to find their own candidates.
Following a meeting of their party leadership on April 13, the Liberal Centrist Union officially nominated former President Valdas Adamkus, who had previously held a wait-and-see position regarding the race.
"We had hoped that it would be possible for parties to get beyond their own ambitions, but it appears that this is not going to happen," said parliamentary Liberal Centrist leader Eligijus Masiulis, who spoke to The Baltic Times moments after his party decided to back the 77-year-old Adamkus.
Speaking at a press conference the same day, Homeland Union-Lithuanian Conservatives leader Andrius Kubilius told reporters his party would also look for a candidate, naming Adamkus as a possibility.
"We, obviously, cannot support Jursenas," said Kubilius.
Others mentioned as possible contenders were acting President Arturas Paulauskas, Finance Minister Dalia Grybauskaite and chief Lithuania's EU negotiator Petras Austrevicius, none of whom has categorically denied the possibility of running.
Presidential elections will most likely be held on June 13 at the same time as Lithuania's first polls to select representatives to the European Parliament.
Crucially, there was evidence that public support for Paksas might be slipping
Polls published in the April 10 issue of the daily Lietuvos Rytas showed that Paksas had slipped from second to fourth place in the ranking of politicians whom respondents identified as "best representing" their interests, with only 10 percent of those asked naming Paksas. A similar poll published in the same newspaper showed that the former president's approval rating had slipped to 27.4 percent, with 52.8 percent of respondents registering a negative opinion.
A related poll also showed that millionaire MP and Paksas-supporter Viktor Uspaskich was on the rise and would triumph in parliamentary elections. Some 23 percent of respondents said they would vote for Uspaskich's Labor Party, up 3.4 percentage points month-on-month. The Brazauskas-led Social Democrats were in second place with 16.8 percent, according to the survey.