Elections likely to consolidate coalition power

  • 2002-10-17
  • Aleksei Gunter
TALLINN

Estonia's two ruling parties look set to consolidate their control of most of the country's city halls and town councils when the country holds local elections this weekend.

The Center Party and its more rightist coalition partner in the national government, the Reform Party, were locked at the top of a September poll by the Emor research company with 17 percent apiece.

The two were followed by the new centrist party Res Publica, which has campaigned to soften citizenship requirements for Estonia's Russian-speaking minority, with 9 percent support and the right-wing Pro Patria Union with 6 percent.

Both leaders are expected to remain at the helm of the Tallinn City Council, while the Reform Party is expected to keep its ruling position in Tartu.The Center Party is the odds-on favorite to remain at the helm in Narva.

In Tallinn, the Center Party has focused on investing in the reconstruction and improvement of the Lasnamae suburb, one of the city's most run-down.

How well the two leaders do is widely seen as an early report card on the national government's performance.

A victory in Tallinn is an especially good indicator of how pleased voters are with the government, said Vello Pettai, a political science lecturer at Tartu University.

"There is clearly a link between Tallinn and Toompea," he said, referring to the name of the hill on which Estonia's Parliament sits.

Last year, a collapse in a Pro Patria Union-Moderate-Reform party coalition in Tallinn preceded the same collapse at the national level by just a couple of months.

Pellai said a strong showing by either party would give it "a public relations boost" ahead of general elections in March 2003.

Analysts will also be looking at the performance of the fledgling Res Publica party, founded late last year.

The party made headlines over the summer by proposing to scrap language tests for non-citizen Estonians, advocating a 100-hour language, culture and civics course instead.

The party is fielding candidates in nearly all towns and cities, but Pettai said he did not expect the party to repeat the success of Latvia's New Era party, which won general elections earlier this month after being created a year ago.

"The party system in Latvia is much less consolidated, which means a newcomer such as (New Era leader Einars) Repse has a better chance of breaking through," he said. "Res Publica will have to compete harder with existing Estonian parties."

Pro Patria's Mart Laar, two-time prime minister who stepped down earlier this year, was also skeptical about the new party's chances.

"We cannot draw parallels between Latvia's New Era and Res Publica. It is traditional in Latvia that a new party appears before the elections and wins. It is unlikely that this will work in Estonia," the Baltic News Service quoted him as saying.

According to public opinion polls, current Prime Minister Siim Kallas of the Reform Party is Estonia's most popular politician, followed by former Foreign Minister and Moderate Party leader Toomas Ilves.

Tallinn Mayor Edgar Savisaar, chairman of the Center Party, was thrid, while Res Publica's Juhan Parts, a political rookie and former head of the state audit office, was fourth.