Election Primer

  • 2002-10-03
Though 20 parties are fielding lists in this year's general election, these are the seven that have the best chance of winning seats, according to opinion polls. Here's a look at the likely suspects:


New Era

This election's new party promising to set everything right. Headed by popular ex-central banker Einars Repse, it promises conservative, corruption-free government.

The party has topped virtually all public opinion polls since it was founded earlier this year, and Repse himself claims he still has a chance to win an absolute majority of the Parliament's 100 seats - something that has never happened in Latvian history.

POLITICS: Conservative/center-right
CURRENT SEATS: 0
LATEST POLL: 15-16 percent
BIGGEST ASSET: Einars Repse
BIGGEST LIABILITY: Einars Repse
WHAT OTHERS SAY: Sanctimonious, pompous.
OUR PREDICTION: 23 seats


People's Party

Four years ago, it was these guys in the role of untainted savior, ready to sweep aside the corrupt mass of ruling parties and lead Latvia boldly into the future.

They managed to win a quarter of the seats in that election but, because party leader Andris Skele managed to anger enough other politicians in the campaign, were frozen out of power for more than half a year.

Skele's subsequent turn as prime minister didn't turn out much better, and his government collapsed amid scandal.

But the party has stayed in the ruling coalition and gets high marks for keeping the budget deficit low and the IMF happy.

POLITICS: Center-right
CURRENT SEATS: 25
LATEST POLLS: 14-18 percent
BIGGEST ASSET: Sound economic policies
BIGGEST LIABILITY: Skele's scandals
WHAT OTHERS SAY: Despite ads pushing teamwork, still a one-man show.
OUR PREDICTION: 19 seats


Latvia's Way

The party that has been at the center of every government since independence, it has also spent the past nine years keeping the country on the path to the European Union and NATO.

And Prime Minister Andris Berzins has managed to do what heretofore seemed impossible: hold together a coalition government for two-and-a-half years.

Voters, though, seem to be tiring of the same old faces, and many feel the party has done little to address the everyday concerns of Latvia's less-fortunate.

POLITICS: Center-right
CURRENT SEATS: 21
LATEST POLLS: 5.5 percent
BIGGEST ASSET: Seen as stable, experienced
BIGGEST LIABILITY: Seen as corrupt, living off the public purse
WHAT OTHERS SAY: Dull but steady, even if they win 5 percent, they'll find a way into the government.
OUR PREDICTION: 7 seats


For Fatherland and Freedom

They rose to power preaching a stridently nationalistic agenda, opposing everything from the liberalization of citizenship laws to encouraging non-citizens to learn the language and naturalize.

In government, they've been rather difficult to distinguish from partners Latvia's Way.

They've toned down the nationalism this time around, opting instead to promote administrative reform and social equality.

Some voters blame them for mismanaging the health care sector. But they can probably still count on support from some 8-9 percent of the electorate who see them as defenders against the Godless Russians.

POLITICS: Right-wing/nationalist
CURRENT SEATS: 16
LATEST POLL: 5-7 percent
BIGGEST ASSET: Some candidates like former Prime Minister Guntars Krasts, who's seen as experienced and relatively clean.
BIGGEST LIABILITY: Have lost their hard-core nationalist constituency, but started their touchy-feely transformation too late.
WHAT OTHER SAY: Has-beens, this is their last hurrah
OUR PREDICTION: 10 seats


For Human Rights in a United Latvia

An uneasy union of three center-left and left-wing parties united by their opposition to what they say are discriminatory state policies against Latvia's Russian-speaking minority. Two of the parties are led by people who are legally barred from standing for election: former Riga Mayor and communist leader Alfreds Rubiks and ex-communist Tatjana Zhdanok.

Distrusted and disliked by nearly all other parties, the group gets strong support from Russians for opposing plans to shift the language of instruction at minority high schools from Russian to Latvian in 2004 and for sponsoring the 2002 World Cup on local TV.

POLITICS: Center-left/left-wing
CURRENT SEATS: 16
RECENT POLL: 10.3 percent
BIGGEST ASSET: Russians who rely entirely on Russian-language, pro-Moscow media for their information.
BIGGEST LIABILITY: Seen as traitors by most Latvians and dinosaurs by more than a few Russians.
WHAT OTHERS SAY: Moscow's stooges
OUR PREDICTION: 20 seats


Greens/Farmer's Union

After failing to pass the 5 percent barrier in elections four years ago, the two have teamed up and fared better this year thanks to growing Euroskeptic sentiment, especially among farmers and small businessmen.

Enlisting former Economy Minister Ingrida Udre as the voice of the discontented has seemed to help, too, but it's less clear whether ex-Prime Minister Vilis Kristopans, a member of the mainstream Latvia's Way for most of his career, adds to their image as a political alternative.

POLITICS: center-left
CURRENT SEATS: 0*
RECENT POLL: 7 percent
BIGGEST ASSET: Seen as an alternative to blind support for the EU
BIGGEST LIABILITY: Vilis Kristopans. Those disquieting, Big Brother-style campaign ads feature his and Udre's eyes.
WHAT OTHERS SAY: Opportunists
OUR PREDICTION: 14 seats
* Udre was elected to the current Saeima as a member of the now defunct New Party.

Social Democratic Workers Party

The Social Democrats were flying high in 2001 when they won Riga's municipal election and took over the city government.

This year has gone less well, and the party was dealt a severe blow when popular MP Janis Adamsons was barred from running for re-election after a court ruled he was once in the KGB.

A number of scandals in Riga have also hurt, and a bitter dispute between leader Juris Bojars and his deputy, Egils Baldzens, ended when the party split into two factions. Baldzens' Social Democrat Union looks unlikely to enter Parliament. Bojars' boys might just sneak in.

POLITICS: left-wing
CURRENT SEATS: 9
RECENT POLL: 4.8 percent
BIGGEST ASSET: Adamsons' victim status
BIGGEST LIABILITY: Cronyism and secrecy in the Riga City Council.
WHAT OTHER SAY: Hypocrites
OUR PREDICTION: 7 seats