Yet another rainbow Parliament?

Since independence, Latvian elections have yet to yield an absolute majority for one political party, and few expect this year to be any different.

Analysts, voters and politicians themselves are predicting a typically fractured Parliament comprising up to seven parties and another coalition government once dust kicked up by the Oct. 5 general election clears.

The question, rather, is likely to be whether up to four right-wing and center-right parties expected to win a majority among themselves in the 100-seat Saeima (Latvia's parliament) will be able to mix egos and form a government.

Einars Repse, the ex-Bank of Latvia governor, insists his New Era party formed last year will win a majority or near-majority of seats on its own, though it gets just 15-16 percent support according to recent public opinion polls.

Most dismiss this as fantasy.

"Either Mr. Repse knows this is nonsense or he's smoking something I would like to get my hands on," said political commentator Karlis Streips, who expects New Era to win some 20 seats. "But it will be good news for Latvia if the next government is another center-right one, as it will be the one to shepherd the country into NATO and the European Union."

Repse's conservative, pro-EU, pro-NATO party should be a natural fit in a coalition that includes current government members the People's Party, which gets anywhere from 14-16 percent support according to recent polls, and Latvia's Way, struggling to stay above the 5 percent mark required for a Parliament seat.

But now, a last-minute row that erupted this week between the People's Party and Latvia's Way and cost Interior Minister Mareks Seglins his job has made the post-election situation even murkier.

Nationalist party For Fatherland and Freedom is the third partner in the current government, Latvia's longest-lasting since 1991.

The People's Party in particular have been successful in peddling a program that includes cutting coporate taxes to 10 percent and should be a good match for Repse's own tax-cutting program.

But the ex-banker, who has hammered away at the ethical lapses of what he calls "the power parties," has shied away from forming coalitions and has endorsed, if necessary, a coalition of willing individuals of his choosing to fill key ministerial posts.

"All the parties have problems, and our approach will be to seek some good, professional, honest people from each who agree to work on our principles," Repse told The Baltic Times recently.

Latvia regularly rates poorly on corruption perception indexes from international watchdog Transparency International and has found it hard to shed this reputation. The country is often seen as among the most corrupt EU candidates.

Forming stable governments has never been Latvia's strong suit, even in its pre-Soviet days. In the first Saeima election in 1922, during the country's first period of independence, 88 parties fielded candidate lists and 20 entered Parliament.

In 1928, voters had 120 lists from which to choose. Twenty-seven parties made it in.

If Repse holds firm this year, he could end up forming a government with center-left and Euroskeptic parties, thus threatening Latvia's decade long commitment to joining the EU.

Doubts about whether he can cooperate with People's Party leader and former Prime Minister Andris Skele, an equally strong personality who has found it easy to make enemies in the past, have fueled such speculation.

But Aleksanders Kirsteins, a People's Party MP, said any government that drew support from left-wing parties would not last long.

"It all depends on Repse. If he turns to the Greens and Social Democrats and gets backing from the extreme left, such a government will last, at best, three to four months."

The Social Democratic Workers Party, which wants to replace Latvia's flat tax with a progressive tax system, and the Union of Greens and Farmers are both running on an anti-government platform.

Social Democrat leader Dainis Ivans, who a decade ago won Latvian hearts as a leader of the independence movement, said his party is destined for the opposition.

"I don't see anyone with whom we could cooperate, including Repse's party, which I think is really no different than the People's Party and other right-wing groups," he told The Baltic Times. "We'll win a small number of seats and we'll have to try to be as effective an opposition as possible."

Another left-wing group, For Human Rights in a United Latvia, is expected to do much better. The party finished second to the Social Democrats in last year's municipal election in Riga and entered the city government.

But while the Social Democrats have since been rent by an acrimonious split and entangled in several scandals surrounding contract procurements and fundraising, For Human Rights has continued to build support.

In last month's Latvijas Fakti poll, the party had more than 10 percent support, third-best behind New Era and the People's Party.

But while it has won heavy backing from ethnic Russian voters, largely for its stand on delaying plans to switch the language of instruction in minority high schools from Russian to Latvian in 2004, it has angered many more mainstream politicians by making overtures to Moscow.

Chairman Janis Jurkans infuriated the government last month by meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin.

Russia has long accused Latvia of discriminating against the Russian minority.

"Absolutely," Jurkans said when asked whether he expected to join the next government. "Other parties are scared because we are so close to power."

But Jurkans' chances of power are probably hindered by his association with some of the Latvian political scene's arch enemies: former Riga Mayor and communist leader Alfreds Rubiks, who spent five years in prison for backing the 1991 Soviet coup attempt, and Tatjana Zhdanok, barred from elected office for her role in the Communist Party after 1991.

For Human Rights is a union of three left-wing parties, headed by Jurkans, Rubiks and Zhdanok respectively.

"The question is not whether they will cooperate but who will cooperate with them," said Streips. "If Jurkans' group broke away, it might be possible, but not now while he's linked to the only man convicted in Latvia of treason and a woman who can't stand for office because she was a commie too long."

Peteris Elferts, a candidate for the center-right party Latvia's Way, said he still sees a possibility for a center-right coalition that includes New Era. But he will have to compromise if he wants a stable, center-right government.

"I don't think Mr. Repse has burned all his bridges yet, and that's important, because he will have to work with either one, two or three of the current government parties," he said.

Ainars Ozolins, a commentator for the daily newspaper Diena, added: "If Repse pushes ahead alone, I don't think his party will last very long. He is incapable of compromise, and if he doesn't change, he'll face problems."

As always, the day could be decided by the performance of Latvia's Way. In every government since independence, the center-right party may prove the hinge party yet again.

Running on a record of sustained economic growth and leading the country into the EU and NATO, the party has nonetheless been fighting for support this year.

In the latest poll, it won just 5.5 percent support.

Among the other parties expected to win seats are Fatherland and Freedom and the union of Farmers and Greens headed by ex-Economy Minister Ingrida Udre. Both poll at roughly 7 percent.

The latter is riding on a strong Euroskeptic message and support from Latvia's farmers, who fear they won't be able to compete against their heavily subsidized Western counterparts after joining the EU.

The Fatherlanders, meanwhile, are rallying to keep support from dropping any further. Four years ago, the party did well on the strength of its opposition to constitutional amendments that granted automatic citizenship to non-citizens' children born after 1991.

After losing that battle - voters opted to soften citizenship restrictions by a narrow margin in a 1998 referendum - the party remained in government but has lost support for its handling of an underfunded health care sector.

Several prominent members, including former Riga Mayor Andris Argalis, have defected to other parties.

"We've been in government for seven years. People feel disappointed," said Special Tasks Minister Roberts Zile. "But we still expect to be among the six or seven parties that get in."