EBRD predicts strong Baltic growth

The Baltic states are expected to outperform other European Union applicant countries in terms of economic growth in 2002, with Latvia forecast to post the strongest GDP growth among all the countries, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's latest Tran-sition Report Update.

The EBRD report is based on data from a number of international organizations and economic research institutes on possible economic developments in Central and Eastern Europe this year.

The 2002 GDP growth estimates for Latvia range between 4.5 percent and 5.5 percent, with the projected average economic growth rate at 4.9 percent. Data Resource Inc. and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates gave the most optimistic growth estimate for Latvia, at 5.5 percent, while the European Union and the Inter-national Monetary Fund forecast 4.5 percent growth for the Baltic country.

Lithuania's GDP is expected to grow at an average rate of 4.0 percent in 2002. Data Resource Inc. and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates forecast 4.9 percent growth for Lithuania this year, the country's most optimistic estimate. The EBRD, European Union, and the analysis unit of the Economist are the most cautious in their projections, forecasting 3.5 percent GDP growth for Lithuania.

The average GDP growth forecast for Estonia is 4.4 percent.

Poland's economy is forecast to grow at the slowest pace, 1.5 percent, in the region this year.

Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are expected to post the strongest growth this year among all countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the Common-wealth of Independent States, with growth forecasts of 8.4 percent, 7.5 percent and 7.4 percent, respectively.

Apart from the above-mentioned organizations and institutions, the EBRD also used estimates by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany's Halle Institute for Economic Research, Hungary's Kopint-Datorg Institute for Economic and Market Re-search Information, the Vienna Institute for International Econo-mic Studies, as well as the international investment banks JP Morgan and Credit Suisse First Boston.