Who will rule Lithuania in the end of this year?

VILNIUS - Lithuanian parliamentary elections will occur this fall. A
tradition of creating coalition governments comprising six or seven
parties already exists in Latvia and Estonia. Lithu-ania also might
be entertained by such a government-dragon with several heads - after
the parliamentary elections of 2000.

Until now, Lithuania's parliament has always been dominated by one
political force. In 1990-1992 the national movement Sajudis had an
absolute majority in the Parliament. In 1992-1996 Labor Democratic
Party (LDDP) had an absolute majority. Since fall 1996, the Homeland
Union (Lithu-anian Conservatives), more widely known simply as
Conservative Party, has dominated the Parliament along with their
daughter party, the Christian Democrats.

In November, the social research firm Vilmorus asked Lithuanians for
whom they would vote if the election were held today.

First place went to the Liberal Union led by popular former Prime
Minister Rolandas Paksas - 15.9 percent would vote for it. (Just a
month ago, when Paksas was not yet a member of the Liberals, they
could expect only 3 percent of the votes).

Center Union was chosen by 10.9 percent, LDDP by 7.3 percent, Social
Democrats, 4.3 percent, Christian Democratic Party, 3.7 percent,
Conservatives, 3.7 percent, New Union (Social Liberals), 3.3 percent,
Peasant's Party, 1.9 percent, Polish Electoral Action, 1.7 percent,
Lithuanian National Party "Young Lithuania," 1.6 percent, New
Democracy/Women's Party, 1.6 percent, Democratic Party, 0.5 percent,
Christian Democratic Union, 0.4 percent, Union of Political Prisoners
and Deportees, 0.4 percent, Lithuanian Nationalists Union, 0.2
percent.

A huge 42.2 percent has not yet made their choice

Politicians expressed their views on the possible future coalitions
after the parliamentary elections 2000 during political science
conference "Lithuanian Political Science: Retrospective and
Perspectives" on Nov. 26.

LDDP Member of Parliament Povilas Gylys said his party's possible
coalition partners can be Social Democrats, the Peasant's Party and
New Democracy/Women's Party. Gylys was skeptical about the
possibility of a coalition comprising the LDDP and the Conservatives.

"If the [Conservative] party is led by Vytautas Landsbergis or
Gediminas Vagnorius, it would be a problem. It is impossible to
negotiate with these people," Gylys said.

Center Union MP Egidijus Bickauskas predicted that next fall two or
three parties will form a coalition.

"If the Liberals of Paksas receives a lot of votes, the Centrists
will be their partners. The views of the Liberals are close to our
views," Bickauskas said. "It would be difficult to form a coalition
with LDDP and Social Democrats though I don't know how it will be for
sure in the end."

Conservative MP Arvydas Vidziunas rejected the possibility of forming
a coalition with LDDP. He also said he does not believe in an LDDP
victory.

"The Lithuanian people are clever enough not to vote again [like in
1992] for the left," Vidziunas said.

He said that the possible coalition partners for the Conservatives
might be Liberals, Centrists, Union of Political Prisoners and
Deportees, Christian Democratic Party and the "party of Laima
Andrikiene."

The last is a new one. It is called officially Homeland People's
Party. It had its first congress on Dec. 18. Two former famous
Conservatives, Laima Andrikiene and her husband Vidmantas Ziemelis
created the party.

They both were kicked out of the Conservative Party after an on-going
feud with Vagnorius a year ago.

During the first congress of Homeland People's Party, Andrikiene was
elected chairperson - she won a narrow victory against her husband
competing for the same post.

Election fever has already come to Lithuania, and new political
forces appear like mushrooms after a late summer rain. On Dec. 18 the
Social Democratic Party finally had a split when right-wing Social
Democrats led by Rimantas Dagys separated from the party and formed
their own political unit named Party Social Democracy 2000.

"We could not tolerate anymore the left populism of [Social
Democratic Party leader] Vytenis Andriukaitis," Dagys said.

The Christian Democratic Party is also on the edge of a split because
of a rivalry between "modernists" and "traditionalists." The latter
are for closer ties with the Catholic Church. "Modernist" MPs
Vytautas Bogusis, Marija Seriene and Algis Kaseta already left the
Christian Democratic faction in the Parliament and created their own
faction.

"We would like to cooperate with 'modernists'," said Kazys Bobelis,
leader of the tiny Christian Democratic Union.

Rivalry among Landsbergis' followers and Vagnorius' supporters still
continue in the ruling Conservative Party though officially
Conservative leaders deny any possibility of a split. The landscape
before the big political battle is constantly changing.