Latvia’s political rookies get down to business

RIGA - In its 20 years of democracy Latvia has seen many new parties rise and fall, with most failing to deliver what voters expected from them. But perhaps putting hope before experience, citizens gave yet another band of newcomers a great result at the Sept. 17 polls.

The rise of the Zatlers’ Reform Party has been meteoric even by Latvian standards. Promising anti-corruption measures, a new higher education system and tax reform, it emerged as the second biggest party in the Saeima. This was achieved less than two months after the ZRP was formed by ex-president Valdis Zatlers in the wake of the July 23 referendum dismissing the previous legislature. And with 20 of its 22 MPs sitting in the Saeima for the first time, there is a real chance that its campaign slogan “Change is coming” could be more than just rhetoric.

One of the ZRP’s brightest stars is Roberts Kilis, a respected academic who the party wants to see as education minister. Kilis previously had no intention of going into politics and is not even officially a party member, and he perhaps typifies the political outsiders heading the ZRP revolution. Kilis says his decision to go actively into politics came from serving as an adviser to President Zatlers, where he saw proposed reforms to the education system stalled by the bureaucracy. But he sees a window of opportunity right now, because as Latvia emerges from its economic crisis, there is widespread popular support for reform.

“I have been amazed by the patience people have shown during these difficult last few years, but beyond just accepting budget cuts, they eventually want to see results,” he says. “People don’t expect a return to the boom years, but they want positive changes.”

Kilis wants sweeping reforms to the way higher education is funded in Latvia, and decentralized school administration. But he admits there is resistance from directors of secondary and tertiary institutions who feel their positions are threatened, as well as from the “19th century bureaucracy” in the Ministry of Education. Moreover, Kilis’ role in the ZRP has expanded into being one of its chief negotiators with possible coalition partners, and in these talks he has encountered resistance from the center right Unity party. Kilis says Unity has no comprehensive education strategy of its own and may be exhausted from having held the education portfolio with little to show for it.

But instead of being an all-or-nothing, single issue reformer, he won’t throw in the towel if he doesn’t get his way immediately. “Unity is lethargic and needs to be woken up, and if there is resistance for the first six months, I’m not going to give up,” he says.
Kilis’ personal view is that Latvia’s next government will be formed by the ZRP, the Unity party of Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis and Harmony Center, which represents Latvia’s Russian speakers and has the most seats in the new Saeima. Kilis thinks that this combination would allow the center right parties to keep Harmony’s populist tendencies in check and garner broad support for the next round of budget cuts. If left in opposition, Harmony could team up with the populist Union of Greens and Farmers to wreck the government’s agenda through procedural measures.

In any event, he thinks that if it doesn’t get in now, Harmony will join the government at some point in the next three years. Vladimir Putin’s announcement that he is seeking a second term points to Russia becoming more authoritarian, and including Harmony would take the sting out of any propaganda campaign Moscow launched against Latvia. Furthermore, Kilis is hopeful that once it has a taste of power, concerns about its irresponsible voting on anti-corruption measures while in opposition will fade.

“If it joins the coalition, Harmony will want to be the best and cleanest party, because they will want their first time in government to be a success story rather than sending them to the rubbish bin of history,” he says.
But others think Kilis may be underestimating the difficulties. Some MPs have already threatened to leave the ZRP if it enters a coalition with Harmony, and political scientist Ivars Ijabs thinks a coalition of the ZRP, Unity and the right wing National Alliance is more likely.

“Miracles do happen, but they [Harmony] will most likely be left out of the coalition,” says Ijabs. “Taking them on would be far too risky for Latvian politicians and there is no leader with enough authority to force something like that through.”
Ijabs says he is skeptical about the ZRP and attributes its electoral success to a populist backlash against the last Saeima. In contrast, Iveta Kazoka, a researcher at the political think tank Providus, is “pleasantly surprised” by the ZRP’s success.
“It set a Guinness Record for setting up a party, and back in June I wouldn’t have predicted that a new party based on idealism could have emerged,” she says. “But having seen how its people have gradually come together and what their motivations are, I am quite impressed.”

Using professional recruitment experts, the party’s founders managed to weld together 2,000 members without being subverted by infiltrators from opposing forces. Kazoka thinks that the credit for this is largely due to a small team of former advisors to President Zatlers who control the party’s board, and this core has occasionally been ruthless in imposing its will. But other voices are emerging to challenge its control. MPs who got themselves elected despite low positions on the party list by campaigning to have ZRP voters put ticks next to their names have created their own powerbases.

Kazoka believes that the biggest hurdle in the coalition talks is smoothing out differences between Unity and the ZRP, which, despite their ideological similarities, mistrust each other. But if they can reach agreement, the combination of experienced Unity politicians with a gradualist approach to reform, and the enthusiasm of the ZRP’s young Turks, could be a success.
“The ZRP has had its baptism of fire, but the question now is whether it can work in the Saeima and the government,” says Kazoka. “The indications are good, but it must strike a balance between compromising and not becoming a doormat for the other parties.”

Kilis denies that there is a lack of internal democracy in the ZRP, and cites a recent survey by the ZRP of its members’ views on their desired coalition partners as proof that it does consult with the rank and file. He says that the party has set up a permanent think tank of which he is a member to ensure that fresh ideas keep flowing to those in power. But he is fully aware of what can happen to a reformist party once it gets into office, including the alienation of the leadership from the grassroots and the sacrificing of ideology over power struggles.

“Power is a huge shock for any party,” he says.