Is the only reason we have elections to find out if the polls were right?  

Rein Toomla is one of Estonia’s most well-known political scientists. His personal interests are in the operating of the Estonian electoral system and in the country’s political parties and their future. From 2004-2007, Toomla was the head of the Department of Political Science at the University of Tartu, and now is a full-time lecturer. He is also author of many publications including one on the Reform Party: ‘A Political Analysis.’ Just a few weeks before the general elections, Toomla presented in the Estonian Parliament (Riigikogu) his newest book: ‘Estonian Parties 2000-2010.’ Mr. Toomla took a break from the pre-election politicking to meet with The Baltic Times.

How would you describe the political situation in Estonia right now?
Currently the political situation is extremely stable. For the first time after Estonian re-independence one government in coalition has been governing from one election till the next election [the last general elections were in March 2007, the next one is on March 6]. When in spring 2009 the Social-Democratic Party left the government coalition, it made for some unstable moments, but the other coalition partners [‘Reform Party’ and ‘Pro Patria and Res Publica Union’] continued to govern. Even more, last month’s exit-polls support the idea that the Reform Party and Pro Patria and Res Publica Union will both get in with the general elections, with the majority of votes. It seems that currently there are no big arguments between these two political parties, so we can think that the present government coalition will continue also after the elections.  In the same way, such political stability can give some kind of stability, but it raises more questions for the long term. 
 
Are we going to have a ‘second leg’ to the economic crisis after the general elections?
Right now the economic prognosis is more optimistic than pessimistic. Joblessness is not so high as it was in the recent past; also, you can feel the  economy growing. Exports are growing and, of course, the euro as Estonian currency gives our country a lot of trust in the economic situation for Estonia in the eyes of the world. It is the same case for Estonia, with a small internal market that depends also on foreign markets, that our country is sensitive to everything that is going on abroad. If large developed industrial countries get into a new wave of economic crisis, it will also harm Estonia. But honestly, generally, around the world, there are no longer any signs of a new crisis.
 
The Reform Party has a bigger presence in the media than other political movements; what do you think is the reason for this?
More attention is natural. The prime minister and the majority of members of government are from the Reform Party. So it is understandable that the media covers them more. Also, during the election campaign the government and its activity are more interesting for the media. So the opposition needs to understand this, that the media cannot be objective and comparative in covering both sides.

Do you think it is better for a political party not to appear in the media than to have negative articles written about it?
It is difficult for me to answer this; experts in public relations know the answers for such things much better.
 
In your opinion, which party has the best possibility to win the elections on March 6?
It is the same, if we are comparing public research and opinion poll results; the Reform Party will win the elections. A separate question or problem is how strong will this win be for them.
 
Do you think that the small parties will have an important role in the coming years?
I don’t think so. Our political experience shows that small parties, which in parliament have less them 10 seats [MEPs] are the outsiders when building coalitions. In [upcoming] parliament elections it is realistic that the parliament will consist of four political parties, which means that there are no small parties represented.
 
Do you think that the Social Democratic Party will have better results in the elections after the problems in the People’s Union of Estonia?
It seems that the Social Democratic Party will win some political points because of this misunderstanding, and try to join the People’s Party. Many elite and well-known politicians from the People’s Party left and joined the Social Democrats. Certainly, these well-known politicians will bring some extra voters to the Social Democrats and will weaken the People’s Party’s position in the elections. If the People’s Party will be out of parliament, it will give more seats to the Social Democrats.

What are the plusses and minuses in Estonia’s voting system and how could it be improved? Should we change the system in any way, say with the 5 percent quota; is this quota fair?
Every political system has its good and bad points and also its opportunities. There is no such thing as a perfect electoral system. Within the Estonian electoral system the biggest obstacle is that it is excessively very tricky and complex. But it seems that the Estonian people are getting used to it. Today, this system seems to work and it is not a good idea to change it radically after every election. But we need to be honest and say that the most questionable part is the compensation mandate system. It is this part of the electoral system that allows the transfer of votes between candidates on the same list from the same party. As a result of these procedures, a candidate who has not been voted for in any substantive way may find themselves elected. This demeans the voting process and decreases the legitimacy of the deputy in the eyes of the electorate, and it cannot be right. If in 1990 more than half of our parliament was elected on that basis, there was only one quarter properly elected, not by the people but placed there by their parties. There is also no deep movement within the ruling parties to change the 5 percent threshold of votes across the country to secure, for smaller parties, representation in Parliament. This threshold is quite high and, therefore, in the near future small parties can find themselves out of ‘big politics,’ Riigikogu. In two general elections ahead, if these parties find themselves out of parliament, the votes cast for them will be lost and their supporters will be without any representation. We do not have such a precedent yet, but it may come.
 
Is this forthcoming election different from ones that have gone before, or even perhaps more significant?
There seems to be no major difference between the forthcoming general election and its predecessor, but it does seem that now that we have electronic voting, turnout can be expected to be higher, but it is only one detail.
 
Considering the considerable criticism of the Reform Party’s handling of the economy and government spending during the current financial crisis, do the other parties offer any realistic and better alternatives and, if so, what might these be?
Estonia’s economic and political situation is more or less the same since the ’90s. But parties are now bigger and so are the plans and the budgets. But if a new political party was to emerge after an election, then it would have to be different in some great detail. But solving the economic crisis would be the same, no matter what political party is in power.

Latvia’s Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis stayed in power after last year’s election, partly because the voters decided that he had made the correct, tough choices in steering his country through their own economic crisis. Will our ruling coalition benefit from a similar scenario in this election?
No doubt there is also such a possibility in Estonia.

Which party do you think has the support of the population now and why?
In all previous elections, even last year, exit polls show good results for the Reform Party. Sometimes their support is a bit more, sometimes less, but never has the Reform Party’s support lost its leadership position. The public opinion polls of February 25 show that the Reform Party was more popular than the Center Party, but the Center Party is not far behind. The results based on this poll are difficult to predict as the Reform Party’s lead in this opinion poll has now almost melted away.