Odds stacked against Ignalina extension

VILNIUS -- The Lithuanian government's special negotiator, charged with persuading the European Union not to flick the 'off' switch of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant, is in downbeat mode even at the start of his task.

"If they [the EU] do not agree this fall on something to do for us, we should not expect anything afterwards," Aleksandras Abisala told journalists on Feb. 28, stressing that his task should be regarded as a matter of diplomacy rather than an energy assignment.

He added that the chances of getting Brussels to agree to an extension were about 1 in 20.

Abisala believes talks with the EU are only possible in search of political solutions to the situation that Lithuania will be in after 2009 when the Ignalina plant is supposed to stop supplying energy to the Baltic grid.

He stressed the need to reach an agreement before fall meeting of the European Council scheduled for November.

Commenting on the legal possibilities to agree on the extension of Ignalina's operations, he said that pressure would not help Lithuania to achieve its goal.

"We have a plan A - to search for political solutions, table the situation to the European Commission and members of the European Union. I am convinced that they will find ways to apply legal standards. We should refrain from pressure. I am going to search for solutions, not to exert pressure," said Abisala.

Even if the efforts to win an extension of operations at Ignalina fail, he expressed confidence that "other forms of compensations or assistance" would be found. Decomissioning Ignalina is already costing EU taxpayers around 5 billion euros.

The main thrust of Abisala's EU effort is to point out the economic damage that would be wrought if Ignalina shuts down with no alternative energy supply in place.

Abisala noted that the country will lack electricity and therefore will be dependent on Russia as its sole supplier of electricity and gas.

"Up until now, the argument in talks on extension of Ignalina operations was that it was a problem of Lithuania. We will try to prove that it is a problem for the entire region and the EU," said Abisala, a former prime minister who has worked as a private consultant in a few energy projects in recent years.