TALLINN - The first major concession in Estonia's new governing coalition could be the post of foreign minister. Former prime minister Mart Laar is expected to challenge current foreign minister Urmas Paet for his job, which is considered the second most important position in government. Laar, as head of the junior coalition partner the Union of Res Publica and Pro Patria (IRL), will be entitled to take a cabinet position of his choosing.
He is currently engaged in many foreign relations roles in an unofficial capacity, advising eastern European nations on how to reform their economies.
Yet if he takes the role, he would be pushing aside a highly respected and well performing minister. Paet, the deputy chairman of the Reform Party, has earned praise during his two years at the helm of the Foreign Ministry.
Paet is also considered a rising political star, having received the fifth highest number of personal votes in the recent general election.
Political analyst Vello Pettai from Tartu University said foreign minister would be a "logical position" for Laar to demand.
"It would be difficult for Prime Minister Andrus Ansip to say no if Laar wanted it," Pettai said.
"It's difficult to see Laar in any other role, given his experience in foreign affairs."
Pettai said Ansip would have to find a "comfortable place for Paet to land" if he was bumped from his job, possibly as speaker of parliament, which would be considered "a nice lateral move."
In terms of status, the post of foreign minister is considered to rank alongside the minister of economic affairs. Previous post holders include past president Lennart Meri, current President Toomas Hendrik Ilves, former prime minister and current European commissioner Siim Kallas, and current ambassador to the United States Juri Luik.
When contacted by The Baltic Times, Laar remained coy on the topic.
"At this stage of the coalition talks, we cannot rule out any of the possible solutions in dividing responsibilities and portfolios," Laar said.
"However, I have to stress that my preferences lie within what is important for my party and our voters… that we can fulfill the promises we have given our voters."
He said the topic had not been broached in the ongoing coalition talks between the four parties 's Reform, IRL, the Social Democrats and the Estonian Greens.
"First and foremost we have to get to the real issues, such as what will be the policies of this government," Laar said.
A large number of ministries are up for grabs after the departure of the Center Party from the governing coalition. Alongside the economic affairs and communications portfolio, which was held by Edgar Savisaar, the four parties will negotiate for the ministries of culture, education, social affairs, finance, agriculture, regional affairs, internal affairs and environment.
IRL could snare another key position in the government, that of minister of economy. Former rector of Tartu University Jaak Aaviksoo has been posturing for the role.
Although Aaviksoo would be adequately schooled to take the job of education minister, such a move would be frowned upon, Pettai said.
"It would look rather strange for the former rector to now be negotiating state financing for universities. Other universities might not like that."
He said it was unlikely that Ene Ergma, a professor and outspoken education reformist, would ask for the education portfolio either.
As for the Center Party, Pettai speculated that they would simply wait out their time.
"They are probably happy that they collected more votes this time than last time. They will bide their time, hoping that this coalition will collapse, as [happened] during the last term of parliament. Remember, this is the third cycle of this political outcome we have seen since 1999," Pettai said.
