Polls show Laborites, Conservatives in the lead

  • 2004-09-29
  • By Milda Seputyte
VILNIUS - With less than two weeks left before what promises to be watershed elections for Lithuania, the upstart Labor Party is still going strong, leading the polls by a huge margin.

And paradoxically, the populist left-of-center party, which was founded and is led by a multimillionaire businessman and property developer, has grass-roots support in the country's backwater provinces.

According to the latest opinion poll conducted by Baltijos Tyrimai, the Labor Party enjoys a 33 percent level of support (it was 29 percent a month ago) among the voting-age population.

"People want to see new faces. They're distrustful of the current ruling parties and the opposition," said Mindaugas Jurkynas, a political analyst who also teaches at Vilnius University. "People want to see anyone who 's in their minds 's hasn't been stealing yet."

In addition to the Labor Party, the only other political force that has managed to boost its support since the campaign's inception is the Homeland Union. The party increased its position from 4.7 percent to 8.4 percent this month.

Analysts interpret the Conservatives' rise as being influenced by two factors. First, the Homeland Union has always been synonymous with the anti-Russian ideology. At a time when Russia is perceived to be bullying Lithuania (see story on Page 1), the party stands to gain. Also, the Conservatives are the only party that has officially declared it would not work with the Labor Party in any form of coalition.

Secondly, the other right-wing party, the Liberal and Center Union, has enlisted Vilnius Mayor Arturas Zuokas as its second candidate. The mayor, however, is part of an ongoing criminal investigation, and this black spot could be forcing the conservative vote toward the Homeland Union.

The ruling Social Demo-crat/Social Liberal coalition finished second in the poll with 15 percent support, down by 5 percent compared with last month's opinion poll.

Jurkynas, however, believes that opinion polls reflect neither the election results nor the distribution of power in the Seimas (Lithuania's parliament). Half the legislature is elected in single-mandate districts; thus, the pre-election polls can only reflect how the party-based half of Parliament could be elected.

Besides, in the remaining days before the election, anything can happen. For instance, twice in September the Labor Party managed to fall into the bad grace of Catholic Church leaders. Lithuanian church heads even warned the faithful about the sincerity of multimillionaires who came to rescue the poor.

The statement elicited a sharp response from the Labor Party, which allegedly sent a letter of complaint to the pope revolting against Lithuania's ecclesiastic leaders.

The Labor Party was also accused of quoting the nationally revered parson of Paberze, Father Stanislovas, in a political ad without his permission. Father Stanislovas had praised the Laborites - who had also sponsored the renewal of his church - for their good work in Kedainiai. His quote was subsequently published in a special advertising box together with Labor Party symbols.

Political analyst Mintautas Bloze said that, overall, the attacks against the Labor Party have not yet served their purpose. On the contrary they have only provoked the opposite reaction, rallying voters around the perceived underdog.

"Unlike other parties, the Laborites are invited to a television show every night. Despite the wish to highlight the Labor Party's weaknesses, attacking them provokes the syndrome of 'save the one under attack,'" Bloze said.

Standing out of the modest and politically correct aura of this years campaign, Eligijus Masiulis, the fourth top candidate on the Liberal and Center Union list, was another politician drawing public attention. The public highlight came when some of Masiulis' political opponents interpreted his ingenious move to distribute shoe-brushes to supporters as bribery.

Yet Zenonas Vaigauskas, head of the Central Election Committee, disagreed.

"The shoe-brushes have obviously been a metaphorical consolidation with the electorate, who believe that we need to clean ourselves after the disgraceful parliamentary scandals," said Jurkynas.