Moscow plans to use legal mechanisms as a hybrid instrument to increase its influence in international politics - SAB

RIGA - In the long term, Moscow plans to use international legal mechanisms as a hybrid instrument to dismantle the rules-based world order and ensure that Russia is seen as a great power, according to the 2025 activity report published on Monday by the Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB).

It is highly likely that, with the war against Ukraine continuing and the Russian regime perceiving an existential conflict with the West, the intensity of hybrid activities will increase in the coming years, the bureau believes.

Given that open military confrontation with NATO carries a high risk, covert hybrid operations are likely to continue to dominate-sabotage, cyberattacks, information operations, and the wider integration of artificial intelligence into influence campaigns. As Western countries gradually diversify their energy supplies and reduce their dependence on Russia, Moscow is likely to increasingly use sanctions circumvention schemes, intermediary countries, and cooperation with authoritarian partners, according to the SAB.

Moscow perceives the war with Ukraine as a broader conflict between Russia and the West, given the military, financial, and other support provided by Western countries to Ukraine. Using various hybrid instruments against Western countries, Russia seeks to deepen existing divisions and create new ones, both between countries and within countries, as well as to promote war fatigue. Russia hopes to reach a critical mass so that the West will reduce or even stop its military support and exert political pressure on Ukraine to conclude an agreement with Russia, the SAB notes.

Russia is constantly looking for weaknesses in Western security that could be exploited in the future, the bureau points out. In 2025, Russia continued to carry out sabotage activities, mostly targeting infrastructure used to provide military support to Ukraine. Cases of GPS signal jamming and spoofing continue in the Baltic Sea region. These can be explained by Russia's defensive measures against drone attacks and the concealment of its "shadow fleet" activities, as well as the creation of additional disruptive effects on NATO member states' air and ship traffic, notes the SAB.

Last year, there were increased incidents of airspace violations, as well as a more frequent presence of unidentified drones, including at critical and military infrastructure sites of NATO member states. Disruptions to airport operations caused by drone flights are being used in Russia's information activities to demonstrate the vulnerability of European countries, such as their inability to control their airspace.

At the same time, Russia is monitoring Western reactions to various security incidents, including drone flights over airports and sabotage of critical infrastructure, regardless of whether Moscow was responsible for the incident in question.

Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has been constantly adapting existing hybrid instruments and creating new ones for its imagined struggle against the West. One of the increasingly active tools is the use of legal mechanisms in the international arena, according to the SAB.

SAB information indicates that the Russian Foreign Ministry has internally acknowledged that Russia must take action against the West in international organizations and courts, as legal warfare is taking place between the two sides. In the long term, Moscow plans to use legal mechanisms as a hybrid instrument to dismantle the rules-based world order and ensure that Russia is seen as a great power, the bureau concludes.

Russia mostly uses legal instruments to refer to international norms that the West allegedly violates on various platforms, such as international organizations. In its propaganda messages, Russia particularly emphasizes the West's apparent double standards, positioning itself as a constructive actor that complies with international norms.

Russia pays particular attention to the UN. Information from the SAB indicates that, in Russia's view, this international organization offers opportunities to achieve short-term decisions that are advantageous to Russia and long-term geopolitical changes.

Currently, one of Russia's priorities is to legitimize its aggression in Ukraine and to achieve at least a neutral position on this issue from other UN member states. Although Russia's aggression has so far been condemned by a significant majority of member states within the UN, this trend is changing and Russia is strengthening its position.

Russia's influence in the UN is determined by its special status - the right of veto in the UN Security Council, which is the most influential body of the organization and determines international sanctions policy. Russia uses this status to gain the neutrality or even favor of other countries on issues important to it.

The SAB is one of three Latvian state security agencies that conduct intelligence and counterintelligence, protect classified information, monitor critical information and communication technology infrastructure, and conduct and control the exchange of classified information with international organizations.