Latvia's daily Covid-19 case count may grow to 1,900-3,500 by late October - epidemiologist

2021-10-12
LETA/TBT Staff

RIGA - By the end of October, Latvia's Covid-19 incidence is likely to become so high that tests will be revealing between 1,900 and 3,500 new cases per day, while the number of Covid-19 patients in hospitals might grow to 1,400 by October 28, Jurijs Perevoscikovs, head of the Department of Infectious Disease Risk Analysis and Prevention at the Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC), told the Saeima Defense, Interior and Corruption Prevention Committee on Tuesday.

The expert said that the number of new Covid-19 cases in Latvia doubles in every 12 days, while the number of hospitalized patients doubles in every 18 days. It can therefore be projected that by October 22 Latvia will confirm an average of 2,700 new cases per day.

"If this trend persists, Latvia will report around 2,700 cases on October 22, which is a huge number, given that an average of 11 percent [of these patients] will be hospitalized," the epidemiologist said.

By October 31, the number of Covid-19 patients in Latvia's hospitals will thus grow to between 1,100 and 1,600 people, according to the CDC forecast.

As reported, speaking at a news conference last Thursday, Perevoscikovs warned that by the end of October, about 3,400 new Covid-19 cases will be registered daily and 130 to 230 Covid-19 patients will be admitted hospitals each day.

The number of new Covid-19 cases confirmed in Latvia from October 4 to 10 grew by 40.5 percent against the week before. The number of hospitalizations kept growing as well, rising by 36.1 percent week-on-week, with severe patients accounting for 10.6 percent of all hospitalized Covid-19 patients.

Of the Covid-19 tests performed last week, 42 percent were performed as part of mass screenings in education institutions, and 58 percent were performed in the general population. Out of the positive tests, 13 percent were related to the mass screenings in education institutions and 87 percent of cases were detected in the general population.

With an average of 16,176 Covid-19 tests performed a day last week, the average number of new cases rose to 1,376 a day.