Demographer: Fear of war is not the main factor affecting fertility in Estonia

TALLINN - Mark Gortfelder, researcher at Tallinn University's Institute of Social Sciences, questions in a newly published blog post the widely held view that the main reason for declining fertility in Estonia is fear caused by the Russia-Ukraine war.

A data-driven approach shows that economic factors, particularly the rapid rise in the cost of living, have a much stronger negative impact on fertility.

Gortfelder's analysis draws on several studies, including the Women's Health Survey and the Population Barometer, and compares data over a longer period. The results show that while fear of war does appear among people's concerns, the rise in the cost of living is a more significant factor in postponing having children or another child in addition to the existing one/ones. This is consistent with the experience of other European countries, especially those closer to Russia, where economic uncertainty is directly linked to fertility behavior.

"Using statistical models, it is not possible to clearly conclude that the decline in short-term fertility intentions is due to increased concerns about war. In other words, the statistical correlation between worrying about military conflicts and short-term fertility intentions is almost non-existent -- it is not the case that those who are very worried clearly have lower intentions to have children," explained Gortfelder.

The analysis highlights that despite an objectively better standard of living than previous generations, a significant change in values has occurred in the 21st century. Having children is no longer considered the norm but rather a personal choice that is easier to postpone or forgo, citing external environmental factors.

Gortfelder's analysis emphasizes the need to focus on solving the economic challenges that affect the standard of living and fertility behavior of young families.

"The three most mentioned topics all depend on economic well-being; the fourth is the war in Ukraine, and the fifth is the threat of the war expanding to Estonia/Europe. So this also emphasizes the importance of the economic situation and outlook," the researcher added.