A weakened Russia should not be underestimated - expert

RIGA - Russia, when it is weak, can be even more dangerous, and these risks should not be underestimated, said Maris Andzans, director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies and associate professor at Riga Stradins University, to TV3 this morning, commenting on statements made by Lithuania in early August that Russia was considering attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic states using Ukrainian drones.

Andzans believes these risks must be taken seriously. "It may happen; it may not. On the one hand, of course, we can laugh at Russia here - how incompetent and powerless they are, unable to defeat Ukraine - but the same has been true of other countries - the Americans did not defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan, nor did they win in Vietnam," the expert noted.

He pointed out that Russia has about one and a half million battle-hardened soldiers, some of whom are starving and some of whom have nothing to shoot with, but this is a massive force, especially considering that Russia and Ukraine are currently the world’s leading nations in drone technology.

According to Andzans, one of the scenarios discussed by experts envisions that Russia, using Ukrainian drones, could carry out attacks on, for example, the Riga hydroelectric power plant, the Incukalns underground natural gas storage facility, or the Klaipeda liquefied natural gas terminal. "And we saw just how much of a drone superpower Latvia is back in May," the expert remarked ironically, noting that this had been a serious challenge for Latvia.

The director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies predicts that if Russia carries out such provocations, its goal will be to test NATO’s reaction and understanding of how and when Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is invoked. He noted that proving Russia’s direct guilt in such hybrid operations would most likely be difficult or impossible. "What will the allies say? Will U.S. President Donald Trump be ready to respond or not?" asked Andzans, outlining potential questions that could arise if Russia carries out these provocations.

When asked what can be done now to prevent these threats from materializing, the expert replied that border security must be strengthened and all services must remain vigilant. "Everyone must keep their eyes open! We should rejoice in Ukraine’s successes and the setbacks in Russia, but at the same time, we must realize that when Russia is weak, it can be even more dangerous than when it is strong," Andzans concluded.