What Russia's military exercise Zapad 2025 will be like depends very much on how war in Ukraine unfolds - Pudans

RIGA - What the joint Russian-Belarusian military strategic exercise Zapad-2025 will be like this coming fall depends on how the war in Ukraine unfolds, Chief of Defense Kaspars Pudans says in an interview with LETA.

Pudans points out that Zapad military exercises have been held every four years since 2013, and the National Armed Forces are always concerned about Russian announcements that there will be exercises of this scale near the Latvian border.

On the one hand, the Armed Forces understand that this is a routine exercise, but all these years the Armed Forces were always put on alert for the duration of the exercise, Pudans explains. This means more in-depth intelligence gathering on movements of the Russian and Belarusian forces, as well as increased readiness of the Armed Forces, and organization of the Armed Forces' own military exercises. Pudans reminds that military exercise Namejs will take place at the same time as the Zapad exercise.

The Armed Forces will also have different action plans so the public could feel much safer that Zapad exercises are not being used for preparing a hostile action against Latvia, Pudans points out. At the same time, Latvia's disadvantage and Russia's advantage is that Russia is so close to Latvia.

As the Armed Forces observed in the spring of 2021 and also in 2022, when unscheduled military exercises were organized by Russia near the Ukrainian border, they later turned into an attack on Ukraine, Pudans explains.

"What the Zapad exercises will be like in the fall will also depend very much on what happens in Ukraine. We will certainly follow the developments and there will be additional factors that we will pay attention to, including the redeployment and return of Russian military forces from Ukraine," Pudans emphasizes.

As reported, the Latvian Military Intelligence and Security Service's report presented earlier in May notes that, following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian armed forces have limited training not only at the strategic level but also at the operational-tactical level, which is most likely due to a shortage of personnel and military equipment.

This year, Russia and Belarus are planning to hold a joint strategic exercise, Zapad-2025, which is to take place mainly on Belarusian territory, but the scale and the territory covered will largely depend on the situation in Russia's war against Ukraine, the service said.