US secondary sanctions could isolate Russia from powers like China and India - LATO board member

RIGA - If the US imposes secondary sanctions on China and India, they could move away from Russia, making it more economically and politically isolated, and thus more vulnerable militarily, Sandis Sraders, a researcher at the Latvian Institute of International Affairs (LAI) and board member of the Latvian Transatlantic Organization (LATO), told LETA.

In his view, if China continues to cooperate with Russia even after the imposition of secondary sanctions, Europe will be forced to consider China as not a pragmatic economic partner.

US President Donald Trump has announced that Russia must end the war in Ukraine in ten days or face new sanctions. The US President had already warned Russia that he would impose 100 percent import tariffs on Russia's trading partners if an agreement to end the war was not reached with Moscow within 50 days. The 50-day ultimatum has now been reduced to ten or twelve days.

Sraders explained that Trump has tried to impose higher tariffs on China in the past, but he has delayed them and is not applying them because of the significant interdependence between the US and China. India, a major US trading partner and regional power, is also a major importer of Russian fossil resources.

In the expert's view, it is now an open question whether Trump will really decide to impose 100 percent import tariffs on Indian exports to the US if India continues to buy Russian fossil fuels. Negotiations on new trade rules between India and the US are already complicated. The US has imposed 25 percent import tariffs on New Delhi and has criticized India for its close ties with Russia.

"I assume that the first deadline of 50 days was a test to see whether China and India and other major buyers of Russian fossil fuels would already refuse to import Russian oil and look for alternative routes or continue to buy fossil fuels from Russia," said the LAI researcher.

According to Sraders, China has already announced that it is ready to buy Russian fossil fuels, which Chinese President Xi Jinping and Beijing see as an energy security issue. He concluded that even the imposition of 100 percent tariffs would not deter China from buying Russian fossil fuels, but it is currently unclear how other countries will view this economically.

He also pointed out that the US Congress has developed sanctions that would impose 500 percent secondary tariffs on countries that cooperate with Russia. According to the LATO board member, if the rhetoric with Russia, China or India deteriorates, the US President may change these conditions as well.

"If China continues to buy Russian fossil fuels, politically it will send a signal to Europe that China is siding with the aggressor in Russia's war against Ukraine. Therefore, China may also become a security issue for the European Union (EU) and Europe. It would only be natural for the EU to join this US foreign policy towards countries cooperating with the aggressor Russia," said the LATO board member

In his view, such a geopolitical realignment could fundamentally change the dynamics of EU-China relations. Sraders explained that until now the EU has seen China as an economic opportunity and partner, as opposed to the US, which has always seen China as a security, economic, social and political challenge.

The expert noted that the Vice-Chairman of the Russian Security Council, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, had a good working relationship with former US President Barack Obama when efforts were made to improve relations between the two countries. Medvedev has stated that such US rhetoric is bringing the parties closer to greater conflict and even war. He has also pointed out that Russia is not Iran or Israel or any medium or small power that can be treated in this way.

"It is quite clear that the Russian economy will suffer from US sanctions, but economic issues are not the most important for Russia. Russia has stated that whatever sanctions are imposed, it will continue to act to achieve its ideological, political and military objectives in Ukraine, which Moscow has set and regularly tells its public about, putting the Russian economy, society and political elite on the warpath," the LAI researcher said.

The way EU-US relations will develop is crucial, the LATO board member said. At the moment, a tariff agreement has been reached which is not very favorable for Europe, but the crack that was widening between Europe and the US has been reduced and there is room to make it even smaller. He said that in the US, both Republican and Democratic congressmen are pushing for much stronger sanctions against Russia. There is also growing criticism among Trump's closest political allies that the US President is humiliating himself and losing his popularity in the US.

"I suppose this is the most important aspect of Trump's change of approach. First, the US president put pressure on Ukraine and tried to lure Russia into ceasefire talks, now Trump is putting pressure on Russia," Sraders said.

According to the expert, during his meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, the US President promised that arms supplies to Ukraine would not be restricted, but that Europe would have to pay for them. In the view of the LAI researcher, this means that security issues are bringing the US and European countries closer together in a common approach to provide all the necessary resources for Ukraine to defend itself. Sraders noted that the US will also be forced to support Ukraine more actively and work more closely with Europe if its main rival, China, continues to openly support Russia.

In his view, if sufficient, reinforced and increased military aid is provided to Ukraine and the Russian army suffers heavy casualties in Ukraine, potentially pushing the invaders out of Ukrainian territory, Russia will be ready to make concessions to US ceasefire demands that will not bring lasting peace in Europe and a rapid improvement in relations with Russia.