Ukrainians will never admit their defeat by Russia and the war will continue - expert

RIGA - Ukrainians will never admit their defeat before Russia and the war will continue in one form or another, political analyst and historian Karlis Dauksts told LETA, commenting on the 1,000 days since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

He stressed that the war launched by Russia in Ukraine has "blown up" the principles of international law that have been established for centuries. Russia attacked a sovereign country in which it is trying to enforce its own rules, for example by talking about reducing the Ukrainian army, not joining NATO and not acceding to various international agreements.

"This is a global conflict, not a conflict between two sovereign states. It "blows up" the approach to the essence of the concept of territorial sovereignty. Moreover, it creates a precedent in which a state can declare its will to take away another state's territory and make it respect its own laws," the political analyst said.

The political analyst stressed that since the beginning of the war Ukrainians have become a nation, consolidated their historical experience and consider Ukraine a part of Europe. In his view, Ukrainian politics does not identify itself with any sentiments of the Soviet Union. According to Dauksts, although, due to various circumstances, there is a possibility that Ukraine will be forced to cede part of its territory, this will essentially be a period of violation of international norms.

Asked how realistic is the invitation for Ukraine to join NATO, which is the first point of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's "victory plan", Dauksts pointed out that the negotiations are not taking place in public, but behind the scenes, as so far there have been reports that talks between Ukraine, Russia, China and the US are already taking place. The political analyst stressed that after the election victory of US Republican Party candidate Donald Trump, the tone of the talks could change or the US could continue the "slow and strange phase of support for Ukraine" started by current President Joe Biden.

"Trump is unpredictable. The world has seen two incalculable and often inadequate leaders in the two largest nuclear powers. Their actions and decisions can determine the fate of nations and their influence is in the hands of individuals. I am astonished by the formation of Trump's new government. This is a great nation with its own historical experience and a well-defined governing structure, with a fundamental balance of judicial, executive, legislative power, but in Trump's interpretation this is beginning to unravel in some way," said Dauksts.

He also pointed out that outside observers of the conflict are exaggerating one thing: the amount of aid Ukraine has received from the US and the EU. The political analyst pointed out that Ukraine is increasingly producing long-range missiles, drones and making its own decisions. In his view, Ukraine is becoming a serious military-political force in Eastern Europe and therefore Ukrainians are inherently less dependent on Western support.

In 1994, Ukraine, Russia, the US and the UK signed a memorandum in Budapest on security assurances in connection with Ukraine's accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Ukraine pledged to give Russia the nuclear weapons it possesses in exchange for national guarantees to "respect Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and borders". The Memorandum is not legally binding on the signatories. Asked whether, in the light of the Budapest Memorandum, the US could completely withdraw its assistance to Ukraine, Dauksts stressed that anything can be signed, but implementation is not so simple and often not in line with the real interests of the countries.

At the Valdai Discussion Club meeting in Sochi, Vladimir Putin, leader of the Russian regime, congratulated Trump on his election victory, saying that a new world order was now emerging. As to what Putin meant by this, Dauksts stressed that Putin was trying to play a diplomatic game to ask him to come to the negotiating table with an agenda he has set. In the opinion of the political analyst, Putin's hopes for a "new world order" are currently a utopia, since the regime leader's main objective is to bring about the destruction of the dollar as a reserve currency.

In his view, Putin believes that at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Kazan, a new financial base in which the value of the dollar will be undermined will be created. Dauksts said that Putin's reasoning was primitive: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization brings together a number of countries with large populations, but they are poor people who work and produce goods in relatively primitive conditions.

Asked how the situation in Ukraine might develop, given the uncertain situation in some countries, Dauksts said that Ukrainians are gradually losing, not only because of personal or national fatigue, but also because the rest of the world might force Ukraine to make concessions and give up its legitimate territories. The political analyst stressed that this will create a completely new paradigm: if a major power does not like the ownership of one or another territory, it can take it away, as evidenced by Russia's actions in Donetsk, Crimea, Luhansk and other places in Ukraine where fighting is taking place.

Dauksts also pointed out that Kyiv is also tired of the number of war dead, which affects the moral and psychological climate. There is a contradiction between the need to defend the homeland, territorial integrity and the death of people. It is also a contradiction between private life and the blood that is shed for the great strategic goals that are set by politicians at the negotiating table. The political analyst stressed that even if an agreement is signed, some territories are ceded, or other solutions are agreed, Ukrainian society will continue to be involved in the war and in repelling Russian attacks.