Trump's new administration will largely determine how supportive US foreign policy will be of us in the future - expert

RIGA - The predictability and supportiveness of US foreign policy in the future will largely be determined by the people who will be in Donald Trump's administration, Martins Vargulis, a lecturer at Riga Stradins University and Director of the Analytics and Risk Management Group PowerHouse Latvia, told LETA.

The expert admits that there could be differences in the administration's position between the first and second Trump presidencies. However, the full list of the administration is not yet known, including who might take the positions of Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State. He pointed out that in the first administration "there were people who understood the security of the Baltic States and the Ukraine story", but that Trump does not have their support now.

He also believes that the polarization of the US public could increasingly shift its focus from foreign to domestic policy. "We have to do our own homework. (...) Issues such as [the war in] Ukraine, which have an absolute impact on our security, will mainly fall on our own shoulders," Vargulis believes.

Western leaders, he says, will need "a lot of bargaining and persuasion skills" because, according to Trump, cooperation must contribute to the US economy.

Looking ahead in US domestic politics, Vargulis said that Trump will have "quite a lot of leeway" to implement his policies, which he has actively promoted, since with his victory the Republicans have taken control of the Senate and the House of Representatives at least until the next midterm elections in two years' time.

The expert predicted that Trump could first be expected to "wipe out certain political officials in the judiciary" by putting in place people close to him who are loyal to the policies of the new US President.

Vargulis, assessing the outcome of the election, said that Trump's victory was somewhat of a surprise, as the latest sociological polls showed that both candidates had a "50/50" chance of winning. Trump has won almost all the "swing" states and has significantly strengthened the Republican lead over the Democrats in the "classical Republican states".

He has also won the popular vote. This is the first time this has happened since 2004, Vargulis noted.

In his view, Trump's focus on the economy, migration and border security worked well in the election campaign. "Polls show that the public perception of internal security is diminishing. (...) A large part of the public sees it as a very legitimate problem. Namely, that illegal migrants pose a challenge to internal security," he said. In contrast, the "foreign policy card" that Vice President Kamala Harris tried to "play" is "definitely not the number one priority" for a large part of the US public.

Vargulis also pointed to the "inertia" that Trump had against the current US President Joe Biden, where the economy was at the forefront. Although there had been improvements in the US economic indicators in recent months, "there are still economic challenges for every American", which were associated with the Biden/Harris presidency.