BRUSSELS - The election of US Republican Party candidate Donald Trump as president is a warning siren for Europe that it needs to become stronger militarily, MEP Martins Stakis (Progressives) told LETA.
He hoped that the US election results would wake Europe up to the fact that allocating 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) to defense could no longer be the achievable goal - countries should move towards 3 percent. The politician stressed that Europe must have a fully independent plan on how it can defend itself and support Ukraine. In his view, the bloc's member states need to come to the negotiating table, assess what capacities and capabilities they have and how long it can take to replenish them.
Stakis pointed out that the EU still has member states that have not even reached 2 percent of GDP for defense. For security, this is worrying. The MEP does not believe that Trump's promise to impose tariffs on goods from the EU will lead to a trade war, but it is fairly certain that it will have an impact on the bloc's economy.
On the possible lack of further Republican support for Ukraine and whether the EU will be able to make up the shortfall, the MEP said that economically it can be done. He mentioned that the war is costing Russia about 120 billion dollars a year. This does not include the costs incurred by, for example, Iran, North Korea and Belarus. Ukraine, on the other hand, can spend around USD 40 billion a year on war. In Stakis' view, the money shortfall can be made up, but this is not the case with arms and ammunition, where Trump holds a powerful trump card.
In Stakis' view, countries are relatively divided into three parts. The first part is made up of countries that want to see Russia lose - countries that know what Russia is like. The second part is made up of countries, led by the US, which want to see Russia as weakened as possible. The third part is made up of countries that want peace at any price, which could even mean the surrender of Ukraine. The politician pointed out that if US foreign policy were to change from wanting to see a weakened Russia to wanting peace at any price, this would send a negative signal to Ukraine, which could then be forced to come to the negotiating table. According to Stakis, he does not see this as likely for the time being.
"I was recently in Kyiv and met with Ukrainian officials, veterans and representatives of NGOs. I don't see that Ukrainians would agree to something like that. They have been through so much. I do not think that the Ukrainians would be prepared to simply give up part of their territory and surrender. I think the Ukrainians will continue to fight and Europe will have no choice but to support Ukraine, otherwise the fight will be with us," said the MEP.
Asked how the EU is doing in terms of strengthening and increasing the capacity of the military industry, Stakis pointed out that we are talking about different weapon systems, where progress is different. If we are talking about artillery shells, for example, then Europe could produce them quite quickly, but a million or one and a half million shells a year is enough for Ukraine for three or four months. In his view, it is clear that military capacity needs to be increased. In the MEP's view, it is much worse with other weapons.
"There is a question I would like to ask the US. On the one hand, the Americans want Europe to buy weapons from them, but why should we do that if we do not know whether we will be able to use the weapons we buy at a critical moment? Excuse me, but which side are we going to target - Lithuania, Estonia? Many people are confused about this. If possibility, Europe needs to move towards greater strategic autonomy so that it can make its own decisions," said Stakis.
He said that Europe should move towards the two objectives discussed in the report, on which Stakis is a co-rapporteur. One is strategic autonomy, which means that the EU can be independent from others, but he said this was not enough. The second objective must be defense preparedness, which means a gradual shift towards a war economy, including increased military spending, increased munitions production.
In the MEP's view, defense preparedness might be a more pressing issue than strategic autonomy, because Europe can produce weapons, but you have to look at the targets and the reality that, for example, in 2022, 18 percent of all purchases made by Europe were joint national purchases. That means that each country is still buying something individually. He expects the new EU Defense and Space Commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, to encourage all the bloc's defense ministers to discuss what the financial means are, how much they can afford to spend and to increase military capacity.
"It is clear that defense budgets need to be increased, but for example procurement needs to be done together. It is clear that Latvia will not be able to buy air defense systems on its own, nor will Estonia, but if all EU Member States along the Russian border do the procurement, it can be done. I think the way forward is obvious," said Stakis.
He pointed out that one of Ukraine's main problems is strategic depth, where targets are chosen at distances of, for example, 300 kilometers. Russia uses strategic depth against Ukraine with ballistic missiles, but Ukraine is not allowed to use strategic depth. In Stakis' view, Ukraine understands that being in constant close combat with overwhelming superiority could mean exhausting its military capabilities by January. The MEP stressed that the course of the war could now be changed rapidly by the decision of Germany and the US to allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons on military targets in Russia.
Asked whether Germany would be motivated to take such a decision, Stakis said he was optimistic. He pointed out that almost three years ago no one could have imagined that there would be a war where drones would decide the outcome, nor could anyone have imagined that North Korea would get involved in a war, which means that changes could be expected from South Korea, which also has long-range weapons. The MEP stressed that Kyiv is now capable of producing even more powerful, longer-range drones than the Shahed drones. In his view, Ukraine is ready for strategic depth, at least in this respect. Ukraine also had a successful test with a long-range missile. The MEP stressed that whether Ukraine would have enough time to put it into mass production was another matter. In his view, the Ukrainians do not even rely on anyone to give them anything - they produce their own, and at "incredible speed, quality and performance".
The new EU defense and space commissioner, Stakis said, offers opportunities to act as a coordinator on Ukraine-related issues between the bloc's member states. He believes that the US election results could be a wake-up call that time is running out and action is needed. The MEP stressed that the EP has no doubts about its support for Ukraine, all EP resolutions say so, but as soon as they reach national governments, they disappear somewhere. He said that often people who have been lethargic and hesitant about allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons might realize that there really are no options now. Ukraine must be given that right.
"Let us hope for the best. What else is really left?! This is emotionally difficult. Some time ago in the EP, I met with cadets from the military academies in Kyiv. They are young people between 18 and 21 years of age. These boys and girls know that in six months' time they will be going to the front. The cadets are my son's age. It is hard to comprehend that today, in 2024, these young people will have to go to the font. I don't understand it," said Stakis.
Please enter your username and password.
2025 © The Baltic Times /Cookies Policy Privacy Policy
