Russia's efforts to influence Moldova's elections and steer it away from the European course through hybrid warfare have failed - expert

RIGA - Russia's efforts to influence Moldova's elections and steer it away from the European course through hybrid warfare have failed, political analyst Andis Kudors told LETA, commenting on the outcome of last Sunday's general elections in Moldova.

The expert indicated that Russia has taken a strategic decision not to let go of any of the former Soviet republics, with the exception of the Baltic States, which left at a time when Russia was still in search of its own identity and foreign policy priorities. Kudors stressed that Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova are facing active Russian attempts to keep these countries within its orbit of influence.

The political analyst said that Moldova's pro-European stance was clearly visible already in the public opinion polls before the elections. Neither former President Igor Dodon, who once took part in May 9 celebrations in Moscow, nor Moldovan politician Ilan Shor, nor other Moldovan politicians, businessmen and activists have been able to convince the country's majority of voting-age population in favor of integration into the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

Asked whether the elections in Moldova could in any way speed up the country's accession to the European Union (EU), Kudors said that on the one hand there is the desire of Moldovan citizens to integrate into the bloc, while on the other it is about the EU's readiness to accept new members. He pointed out that after the wave of EU enlargement in 2014, there was a lot of talk about the need to integrate the admitted countries, and also of integration fatigue.

The expert said that Moldova did not pay too much attention to this talk, which Kudors said was the right thing to do. He also mentioned that Moldova had done what it could in the EU's Eastern Partnership program, but that the EU itself had not offered a clear road map for Moldova to join the bloc.

In his view, the fastest way for Moldova to integrate with the EU would through a merger with Romania, but the political party pushing this idea in Moldova received around 5 or 6 percent of the vote in the elections. This suggests that the idea is not very popular in Moldova, although Kremlin propagandists have talked about it as a plan, even though it does really exist.

Asked to make predictions on the following years in Moldova's foreign policy, Kudors said that Moldova would continue on its path to Europe. At the same time, it is clear that a sufficiently large number of Moldovan citizens would prefer a rapprochement with the CIS. He stressed that Russia is a strategic military obstacle to Moldova's integration into the EU, as it controls the breakaway territory of Transnistria.

"This is a burden for Moldova, a gain for Russia, and the West has generally not paid much attention to the internationalization of the Transnistrian problem. We can predict that Moldova will try to move away from Moscow's orbit of influence", the political analyst said.

Kudors noted that Russia emphasizes neutrality and territorial integrity when talking about Moldova. Kudors also noted that, unlike Georgia and Ukraine, Moldova has not spoken for a long time about its objectives in the NATO context. In his view, this is also partly due to Russian pressure, as it has been important for Moldova to sell fruit and wine in Russia, and many Moldovans are migrant workers in Russia and also in Romania.

"Russia's regional ambitions have not diminished. Russia would like to conquer southern Ukraine and to conquer Transnistria. Russia has not annexed it before, despite an illegal referendum that voted in favor of joining Russia. This has not been done in order to hinder Moldova's Euro-Atlantic integration. We cannot expect Russia to give up on this," Kudors said.

As reported, Party of Action and Solidarity won 50.03 percent of the votes in Sunday's parliamentary elections, while its main rival, the pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc, won 24.26 percent, the Central Election Commission said after 99.5 percent of the votes had been counted.

Party of Action and Solidarity will have an absolute majority in Parliament, giving the party the right to form the next government independently.

As reported, election day in Moldova brought a bomb threat that temporarily halted polling stations in several European cities as well as cyber attacks. Promo-Lex, an NGO that monitored the elections, reported more than 300 confirmed incidents a few hours before polls closed, ranging from unauthorized persons at polling stations to people photographing or filming their ballot papers.

Shortly before the polls closed, the police announced that they had detained three people who were planning to cause chaos and disturbances after the elections. Pyrotechnics and flammable materials were found in their possession.