Russia does not pose a direct military threat to Latvia at present, although there are signs pointing to potential long-term plans - SAB

RIGA - At present, Russia does not pose a direct military threat to Latvia, although a number of signs point to potential long-term plans, the Constitutional Protection Bureau (SAB) told LETA.

In the SAB’s assessment, Vladimir Putin’s regime continues to be dominated by a distorted perception of threats, fueled by the Kremlin elite’s growing insularity and a lack of internal critical voices. Russia’s attitude toward Western countries, including Latvia, is becoming increasingly hostile and aggressive. The SAB, in cooperation with other EU and NATO intelligence and security services, is monitoring the situation and developments in the region.

The SAB’s observations indicate that Russia’s perception of Latvia is becoming increasingly similar to the one it had of Ukraine before the war began. This could lead to more aggressive Russian activities over the long term, thereby significantly increasing security risks for Europe.

At present, Russia does not pose a direct military threat to Latvia, although a number of signs point to potential long-term plans. At the same time, Russia’s information operations, including its rhetoric, have become more strident and provocative, according to the SAB, which cites as examples the unfounded accusations in May 2026 regarding Latvia’s involvement in Ukrainian drone strikes against Russia, as well as the dissemination of false and distorted information regarding state language proficiency tests.

In the SAB’s assessment, Russia’s intensified information campaign-which is very likely also driven by Russia’s economic and other domestic problems-is an attempt to exert pressure on both Latvia and its allies with the aim of reducing support for Ukraine.

National Armed Forces (NBS) Commander Kaspars Pudans also said that Latvia currently faces no direct military threats, but at the same time, the National Armed Forces are preparing for possible hybrid provocations by Russia.

He noted that no increased presence of the aggressor state's armed forces has been observed near Latvia’s borders. In the winter of 2021, Russian troops remained near the Ukrainian border following military exercises, which were followed by a full-scale invasion. Currently, there are no circumstances that would allow for the same scenario to be repeated in the Baltic region.

At the same time, the NBS is prepared for possible hybrid provocations by Russia. Furthermore, due to the ongoing hostilities in Ukraine, it is impossible to rule out the possibility of foreign drones entering Latvian airspace. The NBS is taking specific measures to mitigate the risks posed by hybrid threats, the NBS commander noted.

As reported, John Ratcliffe, Director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), warned Russian officials during a visit to Moscow against escalating the conflict with NATO, particularly with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, two informed sources told the online publication Politico on Wednesday.

The "meeting was primarily to warn Russia against any escalatory action against the Baltic states," said the first source familiar with the matter.

The other source added that the CIA director also sought to persuade Moscow to reduce its military and economic support for Iran.

Earlier on Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal also reported that Ratcliffe had warned Russia not to attack NATO member states.

According to Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics, the level and assessment of the military threat have not changed, and the risk of a direct Russian invasion is currently low.

The president does note, however, that various acts of sabotage, cyberattacks, and hybrid operations remain possible. In fact, Latvia and other NATO and European Union (EU) countries face such threats on a regular basis. He notes that the Ministry of the Interior, the National Armed Forces, and NATO allies are all taking measures to prevent such activities.