RIGA - As the conflict in the Middle East escalates and affects strategic areas, global energy supply chains could be seriously disrupted, oil and gas prices could soar, and migrant flows to Europe and terrorist threats could increase, Sintija Broka, Head of the Middle East Research Program at the Latvian Institute of International Affairs told LETA.
She believes that there is currently no direct risk of escalation between Israel and Iran, but this cannot be ruled out. According to her, while the potential for escalation of clashes between the two countries is always present, and is mainly linked to Iran's influence in the Middle East, in particular its support for various groups including Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as its nuclear program, which Israel considers an existential threat, she sees no direct risk of escalation between the two sides at the moment.
"While Israel is in conflict with Iranian-backed groups on several fronts - Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen - the events of the past year indicate that Iran is not interested in developing a direct confrontation with Israel. However, this may change depending on Israel's future tactics in Lebanon and Hezbollah's ability to hold on," said the head of the Middle East Research Program.
Asked why these clashes are dangerous not only for the Middle East, but also for the world, Broka stressed that they are dangerous because they could lead to wider regional and international instability. In her view, an escalation between Israel and Hezbollah could quickly escalate into a wider regional conflict involving other countries such as Syria and Iran.
"The conflict could spill over into direct clashes between Iran and Israel, with significant consequences for regional stability and the economy. The Middle East is the world's oil and gas supply hub. If the conflict escalates and affects strategic areas, it could seriously disrupt both global energy supply chains and cause oil and gas prices to soar," said the head of the Middle East Research Program.
She stressed that the potential escalation of the conflict involves a range of other threats, including additional humanitarian disasters in the countries involved, an increase in the flow of migrants to Europe, an increase in the threat of terrorism, but more importantly a loss of reputation and credibility of international institutions and diplomacy. Failure to prevent escalation or resolve conflict would undermine confidence in these institutions, contributing to greater global instability, according to Broka.
She pointed out that the experience of the past year shows that diplomatic efforts are failing on a large scale, as shown by the death toll in Gaza and now in Lebanon, and the fact that Israeli prisoners held in Gaza have yet to be released. In Broka's view, this does not mean that diplomatic processes should be abandoned; on the contrary, they should be stepped up, but already including, for example, sanctions and economic pressure on the aggressor parties, both states and groups.
At the same time, restrictions on military support to the parties involved would allow the parties to return to constructive dialogue. However, sanctions can be effective if they have clear objectives, such as disarmament or the opening of peace talks, the expert summarized.
The AFP news agency reports that EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said on Monday that the escalating clashes between Israel and Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah threaten to plunge the Middle East into all-out war.
"I can say we are almost in a full-fledged war," Borrell said ahead of a gathering of world leaders at the United Nations.
"We're seeing more military strikes, more damage, more collateral damage, more victims," he added as Lebanese authorities said Israeli airstrikes killed at least 492 people on Monday, including 35 children.
The strikes marked the deadliest day of cross-border violence since the Gaza war began.
Israel said it killed a "large number" of Hezbollah militants when it hit about 1,300 sites in southern and eastern Lebanon, including a "targeted strike" in Beirut.
"Everybody has to put all their capacity to stop this," Borrell said, pressing for a solution in New York.
On Gaza, he said "despite all the diplomatic capacity that we have deployed, nothing has been able to stop the war," accusing both sides of "procrastinating."
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