Lithuania‘s National Alliance eyes 2028 breakthrough as support holds at 4–5 percent

According to the latest 2026 polls, Lithuania’s National Alliance (NS), a nationalist and conservative party emphasizing sovereignty, national identity, and immigration control, is hovering around the threshold for entering the Seimas, the country‘s Parliament, with about 4–5 percent support. The Baltic Times Magazine asked NS Chairman and MP Vytautas Sinica to answer the questions.

Why do you think your party is not seeing stronger public backing?

I believe there are many reasons why we are not growing faster. The main one is visibility. I am the only National Alliance representative in the Seimas. I think I am relatively visible and heard, but I am still only one person. I had to fight for media attention, and I believe I succeeded. Compared to the 2024 election period, my favorable ratings have tripled, while the party's ratings have roughly doubled. This is particularly noticeable in Vilnius, where we receive over 8% support and, according to polls, are the city's third-largest party. Not long ago, nobody would have imagined that.

In addition, we lost the first year of this parliamentary term due to internal party problems. The leadership changed in a painful way, and I was even expelled from the party before later becoming its chairman. This frightened and disappointed some of our supporters, and we had to regain their trust. Since we resolved those issues and I became chairman, we have seen continuous growth. Our stated goal for the 2028 elections is to surpass the 5 percent threshold. If we continue growing at the current pace, it appears we will exceed that goal by a considerable margin.

There is an evident competition on Lithuania's political right between your National Alliance (NS), TS-LKD, Nemunas Dawn and the prospective party of MP Ignas Vėgėlė. Which parties do you believe have the strongest prospects, and why?

I would not agree that we are all competing for exactly the same voters. As a political scientist, I am convinced that Lithuanian voters are primarily divided by their attitude toward national defense: whether they believe defense should be strengthened, more money should be allocated to it, and other sacrifices should be made, or not. Cultural and economic issues come only afterward.

From this perspective, the National Alliance competes with TS-LKD, while Nemunas Dawn competes with Vegele – or rather, will compete if he actually establishes a viable political party. I would not venture to predict who will perform better. TS-LKD will certainly remain one of the largest parties in the next elections, and we do not yet expect to surpass them. However, expectations that Laurynas Kasciunas becoming party chairman would make TS-LKD more conservative and more national-minded are fading. The party has not changed and continues to marginalize its more conservative members.

I am convinced that the National Alliance is the only party genuinely fighting to preserve a Lithuanian Lithuania – its borders, language and nation – not only against military threats but also against cultural disappearance. Vegele’s prospects will largely depend on Nemunas Dawn: whether it can convincingly position itself as an anti-establishment force while in opposition. If it cannot, opportunities will open up for Vegele.

Which legislative packages or amendments have you managed to pass with the support of other members of the Seimas? Which of your legislative initiatives would you highlight, and why?

During my first year, I was more pleased with successfully stopping harmful initiatives than passing new ones. These included proposals concerning the Law on National Minorities, amendments to the Equal Opportunities Law, an international labor convention, civil partnership legislation, and the expansion of so-called hate speech penalties.

Unfortunately, we failed to stop the expansion of the real estate tax and what I consider excessively burdensome building requirements for homes in Lithuania.

Most of my own legislative initiatives focus on immigration control. So far, the Seimas has approved at the initial stage my proposals to tighten deportation rules for foreign nationals who commit crimes and to grant border guards greater authority to revoke residence permits. It is also worth mentioning that the Seimas approved, at the introductory stage, my proposal for a referendum on the definition of the family. More than 60 members of parliament signed the initiative. Unfortunately, Julius Sabatauskas has been delaying its progress in committee.

How much has National Alliance membership and the number of regional branches increased since the 2024 parliamentary elections?

During the first year after the elections, the party experienced internal difficulties, and membership actually declined, falling below the legally required threshold of 2,000 members. Since last autumn, however, membership has been steadily increasing. Around 200 new members have joined during this period.

In addition, five new regional branches have been established. We hope to create several more this year.

Lithuanian society, like many other democratic societies, is deeply polarized. In your view, what ideas or initiatives could unite the country and its people? Where should such initiatives come from?

All societies are united by their perception of external threats. In Lithuania, the objective and very significant threat posed by Russia undoubtedly plays a unifying role. We may disagree about the best means of responding to that threat, but a large majority of society recognizes its existence.

Migration is another external challenge that, in my view, should unite the nation, although this is not yet as widely understood.

Conversely, what divides society the most are cultural and values-based conflicts – debates over family, gender, language, abortion and similar issues. A responsible government that genuinely seeks to unite society should avoid provoking such disputes and, in particular, should not pursue policies that run counter to the views of the majority on these issues. That is the most direct path toward social tension.

I hope – and I am doing everything I can in the Seimas – to ensure there is enough wisdom to avoid creating such conflicts.