It is high time Europe woke up, or there will be "grave bells" - former Defense Ministry state secretary

RIGA - It is high time for Europe to wake up and urgently focus on strengthening its defense capabilities and think about the possibility of not only engaging in the US-Russia talks, but also replacing US arms supplies, Janis Garisons, co-founder of the Civilian Resilience Nordic (CIREN) and former State Secretary of the Latvian Ministry of Defense (MoD), has said on Facebook.

Commenting on US President Donald Trump's phone call with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, Garisons does not deny that outwardly things are starting to look very much like 1938 and the infamous Munich Agreement, when the division of Europe began and ended in the Second World War.

Certainly the way on what type of information has been presented on Ukraine, Garisons is concerned about a potential agreement between the US and Russia behind Ukraine's back. At the same time, before panicking, Garisons points out that not all the details are known and that there are different possible developments.

He points out that the new US presidential administration has made a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine its main objective. This could be the most dangerous fact, because, as in Munich in 1938, it is assumed that if one dictator's ambitions are satisfied, he will stop. But in the long term, the consequences are quite the opposite: it only whets the appetite and will probably lead to a major war in Europe.

It is also worrying, according to Garisons, that President Trump has announced his willingness to meet the Russian dictator in both Moscow and Washington, which could signal not only an end to the isolation in which Russia and its dictator have found themselves, but also a lifting of the sanctions regime. This will make it easier for Russia to prepare for a new, much bigger war. At the same time, the fact that the US has not really consulted the Ukrainians is also disturbing.

"But overall, looking at the Trump administration's position, I think its aim is to reach an agreement with Russia to end the war, in the hope that it can then win Russia's support in its fight against China. Otherwise, it is difficult to explain the positivity that is currently being expressed towards the war criminal," stresses the expert.

In Garisons' view, the current negotiating positions "are a dream for Russia". By saying that Ukraine will not be admitted to NATO and that a return to the pre-2014 borders is not possible, Russia's task is made much easier.

The former Defense Ministry official admits that Russia will be "cool" in the negotiations and will demand not only guarantees for Ukraine to remain outside NATO and to keep the conquered territories, but also to eliminate what Russia considers to be the causes of the war.

Trump has already managed to say that he understands Putin and that NATO's enlargement has led to war, so the Russian ultimatum of December 2021 to withdraw NATO forces to the 1997 borders is likely to be back on the negotiating table, Garisons believes.

"At the same time, maybe things are not so hopeless. I think there are many circumstances that can avoid worst scenarios. First of all, we don't really know to what extent the new US administration is prepared to make concessions to Russia, and whether at some point Russia's exaggerated demands will provoke a backlash in the US," Garisons stressed.

However as much as Trump may want to make peace, a failure in regards to too much concessions to Russia would be tantamount to the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan and would not be a sign of US might, he believes. Although the announcement of peace talks was bizarre enough, it should not be completely ruled out that the US may issue ultimatums to Russia and that Trump will act unpredictably, the expert points out.

The expert, however, points out that Ukraine and its people would be completely voiceless and non-existent in the attempts of the superpowers to reach an agreement. The Ukrainian people will have to have the last word on whether they are prepared to agree to terms that might not guarantee long-term peace if Russia is not defeated and its imperial ambitions destroyed.

The expert believes that there is now a need for a more active European position. "It is high time Europe woke up and realized that this is about war nowhere else but in Europe. It is therefore urgent to focus on strengthening its defense capabilities and to think about the possibility of not only engaging in US-Russia talks, but also replacing the US in arms supplies," Garisons stressed.

The former Defense Ministry official reminds that the new US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, made it very clear in Brussels this week that the main objective of the US is to fight the Chinese threat, but that security in Europe must be guaranteed by Europeans themselves. Europe's "holidays" on defense is therefore over, and if this situation is not seen as a final wake-up call, the next ones will be "grave bells", Garisons predicts.

Latvia, for its part, should start immediately reinforcing and mining its eastern border, as well as maximizing the size of the National Armed Forces to 31,000 troops. In this context, Latvia should not wait for the US to urge it to spend 5 percent of its GDP on defense, but think about the necessary funding for the development and provision of combat capabilities, the expert points out.

"Yes, the situation is not pleasant and we are likely to face many challenges in the near future, but Europe and Latvia must be able to take a more proactive stance and understand and start thinking about our own defense, and understand that the time when the US did everything is over. Even with its existing military capabilities, Europe is capable of confronting Russia, it is just the political will that is lacking, which should finally be created if we do not want a repeat of historical events," Garisons said at the end of his commentary.