RIGA - If Russia has used an intercontinental missile against Ukraine, it is a warning signal to the West and the US, and next time Russia could use a missile with a nuclear warhead, military analyst Martins Verdins told LETA.
The expert noted that this could become yet another spiral of escalation. In Verdins' view, the time between Republican candidate Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election and his inauguration will be a "grey period" when everyone can do anything without fearing punishment, as outgoing US President Joe Biden still keeps working, while Trump is not yet inaugurated. Verdins believes that some players consider this "grey period" as an opportunity to do things that have been included in more risky plans, knowing that this uncertainty gives them such an opportunity. However, as soon as Trump takes office as US President, the rules of the game will slightly change and "there will be a new reality".
The military analyst noted that following Trump's inauguration, the question of Russian-Ukrainian talks will be one of priorities. In the meantime, all sides are looking to take the best starting positions ahead of the talks, as there are indications that they might take place.
According to Verdins, if Russia has indeed launched the intercontinental missile, the signal is meant not for Ukraine by the rest of the world, and the US in particular. What is usually meant when talking about the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine is nuclear weapons of small tactical yield.
Verdins explained that tactical nuclear weapons are strategic and can be fired from a cannon or dropped from an aircraft. According to the military analyst, these will be small but nuclear weapons. Russia does not need an intercontinental missile for such an attack on Ukraine. This is a strategic level nuclear weapon which is used to threaten equally powerful countries. In this case, Russia can threaten the West and nuclear countries that are far enough away from Russia.
The military expert added that firing an intercontinental ballistic missile with a conventional payload on a daily basis is too expensive, as the missile is designed to carry a nuclear weapon. The intercontinental ballistic missile is designed to fire over two continents, from Eurasia to the US, he explained. The missile is too expensive and meant only for rare occasions.
"Everyone fears that Russia will use a tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine, which is a relatively small weapon, but the West will have to respond to it. We already know what the response will be - with conventional weapons, but they will be used massively. The West will not use nuclear weapons, but it is not clear what Russia's response will be," said the military analyst, adding that there is concern that such an escalation could spiral out of control.
Russia used a Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time in an attack on Dnipro on Thursday morning, the Ukrainian Air Force said. A Kinzhal hypersonic missile and seven H-101 cruise missiles were also fired at the city, of which the Ukrainian Air Force shot down six.
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