If Covid-19 situation in Latvia develops as in the UK, number of patients receiving hospital treatment could increase three-fold

RIGA - If number of Covid-19 cases in Latvia increases each week according to the December and January outbreak scenario in the United Kingdom, there could be about 3,600 patients receiving treatment for Covid-19 in Latvian hospitals in mid-March, which is three times more than at present, according to calculation from the Center for Disease Prevention and Control.

Specialists have concluded that from January 4 to 31 of this year, the number of patients receiving treatment for Covid-19 at hospitals decreased by 12.5 percent, but the number of patients in severe condition increased by 57 percent. On the final day of January, there were 1,061 patients in hospitals, 113 of whom were in serious condition.

The Center for Disease Prevention and Control has prepared various scenarios for consideration. It is estimated that in case the number of new cases decreases by 10 percent per week, the maximum number of hospitalized patients on March 15 will be 719, but the minimum 565. The average number of hospitalized patients in mid-March could be 642.

If the infection rate increases by 1 percent per week, the average number of patients in mid-March could be 1,003, the lowest 882, and the highest 1,121. If the infection rate increases by 10 percent per week, the highest number of patients in mid-March could be 1,566, the lowest 1,230, and the average - 1,398.

If the infection rate increases by 20 percent per week, the average number of patients in mid-March could be 1,964, the lowest 1,729, and the highest 2,200.

However, it the Covid-19 situation in Latvia develops as it has in the United Kingdom in December and January, the Center for Disease Prevention and Control calculates that the average number of patients in mid-March could be 3,204, the lowest 2,819, and the highest 3,588.