Foresight Centre to Start Researching the Future of Older People in the Labour Market

TALLINN - The Foresight Centre's new research direction will focus on the type of lifelong learning system Estonia will need in the future amid an aging population.

A report, due to be completed in the spring, will outline the main trends and possible scenarios in a situation where the working-age population is shrinking, working lives are extending, and the continuous updating of older people's skills is becoming increasingly crucial.

Eneli Kindsiko, an expert at the Foresight Centre, noted that Estonia's population is aging rapidly. According to a forecast by Statistics Estonia, people over 65 will constitute 27 percent of the population by 2050, up from the current 20 percent. "In an aging society, lifelong learning is of crucial importance, and national competitiveness will increasingly depend on how well people in the 50+ age group, the so-called 'silver workers,' are integrated into the labour market," Kindsiko said. She added that according to an OECD forecast, Estonia's working-age population will decrease by more than 30 percent by 2060.

The latest Estonian Human Development Report indicates that while Estonia's participation rate in lifelong learning is above the European Union average, participants are predominantly those who already possess higher-than-average educational capital. For instance, women aged 25-49 with higher education are the most active participants. In contrast, adults with lower levels of education, particularly men with only basic education and people with reduced work capacity, show very low participation rates.

According to Kindsiko, another concern for researchers is that the number of healthy life years in Estonia is relatively low compared to many other countries. "Estonians tend to live the last 20 years of their lives with health limitations. In other words, their healthy years often end before they reach the official retirement age," she explained.

The OECD emphasizes that countries and employers must work together to combat age discrimination, create age-friendly workplaces, promote lifelong learning, and facilitate mobility between different jobs and roles. The organization believes that people must have opportunities to upgrade their skills throughout their careers, and employers must offer flexible work arrangements and conditions suitable for a multi-generational workforce. This is particularly vital in sectors already facing an acute shortage of top specialists, such as healthcare, education, and engineering.

The goal of the Foresight Centre's research stream, "Trends and Future of Lifelong Learning," is to identify the key uncertainties and driving factors that will shape the future of lifelong learning in Estonia up to 2050. As part of this research, the centre will analyze how population aging and a shrinking working-age population affect the need for lifelong learning. It will also develop scenarios for the potential evolution of employment and lifelong learning for older people. The report, scheduled for release next spring, will also explore ways to keep the skills of workers over 50 up-to-date and ensure flexible opportunities for upskilling and reskilling throughout their lives.

The Foresight Centre is a think tank at the Riigikogu (the Estonian Parliament) that analyzes future developments in society and the economy. The Centre conducts research projects on various topics, aiming to analyze long-term societal trends and identify emerging patterns and new directions.