Foresight Center to study impact of coronavirus crisis on future of Estonian economy

  • 2020-07-06
  • BNS/TBT Staff

TALLINN – The Foresight Center at the parliament of Estonia is to conduct a research project on the impact of COVID-19, which aims to assess future changes in the economy in terms of risks and opportunities.

The head of the Foresight Center, Tea Danilov, said in a press release that the research project will foremost focus on assessing the future prospects of different economic sectors.

"The world following the coronavirus crisis is full of unknown sizes, where different paths of development are possible in terms of economic globalization, changing consumer preferences, as well as the speed of the green revolution in relation to state support measures," she added.

Danilov noted that the study will also examine, for example, how the structure of the Estonian economy and the competitive position vis-a-vis other countries may change -- with the possible course of broader social and societal processes being considered as a background factor.

The Foresight Center will analyze possible future developments with the help of scenarios, and in compiling them, both the opportunities and threats that developments related to the coronavirus crisis may pose to Estonia will be highlighted.

Foresight Center expert Uku Varblane said that the research project will describe the main mechanisms through which the coronavirus and the measures taken to prevent its spread affect the economy and society as a whole.

"It is important for us to point out emerging and/or future amplifying trends and the development scenarios for Estonia based on them, in order to then address the risks and opportunities arising from the scenarios for different economic sectors," Varblane said.

He added that, for example, the future success of many sectors of the economy depends on whether or not the movement of goods and people across borders returns to previous levels.

"Recovery is not only about removing restrictions, but also about how much business and communication has moved to digital channels and how countries and companies are trying to prepare for future crises. The business opportunities of the digital economy are also affected by growing entry barriers and regulations worldwide," Varblane said.

In the research project on the impact of COVID-19, the Foresight Center will also describe the significance of the developed development scenarios for different economic sectors and their development perspectives.