For lasting peace, negotiations on ending the war must be between Ukraine and Russia, not Russia and the US - expert

RIGA - To ensure lasting peace, negotiations on ending the war should take place between Ukraine and Russia, not Russia and the United States, Maris Cepuritis, Director of the Center for Eastern European Policy Studies and lecturer at Riga Stradins University, told LETA.

As reported, US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he had a "productive" telephone conversation with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Trump also said that he had agreed with Putin to "immediately" start talks on ending the war that Russia has launched against Ukraine. Also on Wednesday, the US President held talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, during which they discussed ways to end the war.

According to Cepuritis, Russia's biggest gain from Trump's call to Putin is that Russia is once again being talked to and is once again a player in international politics. He explained that until Wednesday Russia was in relative isolation because Western leaders were not actively seeking to open a dialogue with the Russian dictator, but Trump's call marks a reversal. The expert noted that the Russian propaganda machine is beginning to portray this conversation as a gain for Russia and, to some extent, a concession on the part of the US.

According to the Director of the Center for Eastern European Policy Studies, judging by the first conversation between Trump and Putin and the statements made by the US, a situation is emerging where negotiations on Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine and how to resolve it can largely take place between Russia and the US, rather than between Russia and Ukraine as they should. In his view, this is a bad approach, because Ukraine is being brought in as a secondary, minor player. Cepuritis stressed that it remains to be seen how this process will develop further.

"Hopefully, negotiations will take place between Russia and Ukraine, with the US acting as a mediator and a party that tries to motivate, encourage and seek solutions," the expert said.

Asked whether the statements of various US officials indicate that the US deliberately wants to move away from its presence in Europe, Cepuritis pointed out that this is one of the Trump administration's foreign policy orientations - to reduce the US commitment in Europe. There is also the idea that Europe's problems, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine, should be solved by Europeans themselves.

Asked whether Europe or, for example, the European Union (EU) should not be involved in the peace talks, the Director of the Center for Eastern European Policy Studies noted that the involvement of the EU and European powers as players in the process would also be important, but that Russia and Ukraine should be the primary negotiating parties. In his view, the others can to some extent contribute to the negotiations, put pressure on one side or the other, help improve the negotiating position.

As for the US involvement in the negotiations, Cepuritis pointed out that this is linked to Trump's personality, as the US President wants to gain recognition and also attention by bringing both sides to the negotiating table and trying to resolve the conflict through diplomatic negotiations. He also added that the opening of talks does not automatically mean a cessation of military action, a ceasefire. Nor does it mean that in a few weeks or months we can expect an outcome.

The Director of the Center for East European Policy Studies stressed that, looking at other approaches to resolving complex conflicts in history, negotiations as a way of reaching solutions will only be effective if the parties see that they are unable to achieve their objectives in other ways, such as war. There is a possibility that in this case, particularly on the Russian side, negotiations may be used to create the appearance of an interest in dialogue, rather than substantively seeking a solution to the conflict.

Asked whether he saw a future threat to the Baltic States as well, following the statements of Trump and US officials, Cepuritis admitted that there could be. In his view, if Russia is not punished for what it has done in Ukraine and Russian decision-makers see that war can be used to deter other countries from making independent foreign policy decisions that are unfavorable to Russia, the likelihood that Russia could continue to use military tools to force other countries to act in its interests could potentially increase.

At the same time, the expert also stressed that objective considerations should be taken into account, i.e. Russia's military resources are currently depleted and could be restored to some extent in the next five to ten years. If you look at it this way, this is the time when the US will have the next election cycle, which could bring some changes in US policy towards Europe.

He noted that Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are investing heavily in defense, strengthening various cooperation formats, for example between the Baltic States and the Nordic countries. In the expert's view, all are trying to ensure that Russia is deterred from any kind of military activity against any of the NATO member states.