Expert suggests that meeting between Trump and Putin did not take place because it would have called into question effectiveness of international law and EU sanctions

RIGA - The planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in Budapest did not take place, as its taking place on European territory would have demonstrated the weakness of international law and the ineffectiveness of European Union (EU) sanctions, political scientist and US political observer Martins Hirss told LETA.

He noted that the exact reasons are not yet known, but one explanation could be that Putin "beat Trump by one goal" in last week's telephone conversation. In Hirss' view, the meeting in Hungary would demonstrate the ineffectiveness of the ICC arrest warrant if Putin were to arrive and not be detained, and would also show that EU sanctions against Russia are not working, as the EU has banned Russian aircraft from flying into European territory.

In his view, such a meeting would also normalize Putin's role in the world after the invasion of Ukraine, as "it would show that Western leaders are reintegrating him back into the Western world order". Hirss stressed that European leaders were likely to have used various pressure mechanisms over the weekend to prevent the meeting from taking place on European soil.

Another possible reason was the meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, after which the Ukrainian side did not agree to Trump's proposal to withdraw from the Donbas region. According to Hirss, there is therefore no reason for Trump to meet Putin, because this meeting would have ended without result and Trump cannot afford to look like a loser.

Hirss pointed out that Trump wants to maintain the image of a winner and avoids situations where he could be criticized for weakness. At the same time, he acknowledged that the US announcement of sanctions against Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, secondary sanctions against Chinese and Indian companies that buy Russian oil and gas, is a positive signal, but "with Trump you never know whether it will be put into practice".

Asked whether the US would give up its role as mediator or whether Trump would continue his efforts for the Nobel Peace Prize, the expert explained that Trump can fight, but the geopolitical reality has to be taken into account: the US and Trump are not omnipotent, and only Ukraine and Russia can negotiate peace.

According to Hirss, Russia does not want peace in Ukraine, believing that time is on its side and the loss of human lives is not an obstacle, because in the long run Ukraine will be forced to make concessions and the West will be divided. He added that the priority of dictators is power - despite the economic problems and public discontent, there is no guarantee that sanctions will make Russia change its foreign policy course.

He stressed that Putin, while in power, can establish a complete totalitarian and brutal regime, because he and those close to him live well, even if the country is doing badly. The expert pointed out that in Russia it is not the interests of the people that are important, but the political and economic enrichment of the elite that matters to the leadership. He concluded that this can be done even if Russia has complete control of information and the people have no say, because a country that does not want to bow to Western pressure can still achieve a lot.