Estonia: Voter support for alliances, independents higher than for top ranked party

TALLINN – Nationwide, electoral alliances, and independent candidates stand to get 29 percent of the vote and the top-ranked party, Center, 27 percent of the vote if local elections were held tomorrow, it appears from a survey conducted by Kantar Emor. 

All other political parties are trailing far behind.

"Electoral alliances and independent candidates are usually preferred by those who attach more value to candidate's person than his or her party allegiance," Aivar Voog, the expert at Kantar Emor, told Postimees. "When the elections come nearer and the people running on the party lists are named, one usually finds a suitable person to vote for also in the list of some political party," he added.

"Speaking of the high support for electoral alliances, the Center Party definitely is not against electoral alliances, we have no wish to do away with electoral alliances in Estonia. When people have the wish to set up electoral alliances and run on an equal footing with political parties, they must have this possibility," Juri Ratas, prime minister and chairman of the Center Party, said in his commentary. He added that Center's high rating in the poll demonstrates its professionalism in managing local affairs.

Urmas Sukles, a prominent member of Reform, decided already six months ago to shun the party's dictate and try and attract the support of voters with an electoral alliance, Postimees said.

"I've tried making it to the Riigikogu once and it's not something for me," Sukles said. "The rationale behind electoral alliances is simple: if you make a strong list of local people, the party list simply is no longer attractive. We will go to the polls with the definite wish to win the majority."

The chairman of Reform, Hanno Pevkur, told Postimees earlier this week that people like Sukles cannot count on the party's support and they will have no place in the list of the Reform Party in parliamentary elections.

Voog said there are reasons to believe that in this year's elections alliances will get a bigger share than in the municipal polls of 2013.

He pointed out, however, that alliances and independents ranked high at close to 30 percent in approval ratings also before the 2013 elections. Later, in the elections, they scored 23 percent. The closer one got to the 2013 elections, the lower was the percentage of respondents in surveys who said they would vote for an alliance or an independent candidate.

In the last three local elections, the share of alliances and independents in the nationwide vote has ranged from 20 percent in 2005 to 27 percent in 2009, being in between the two at 23 percent in 2013.

The high ratio of independents in 2009 can be attributed to people who used to run in the list of the now defunct People's Union in the 2005 polls running on the lists of electoral alliances in that year, before joining the lists of other parties such as IRL in 2013.

In the Kantar Emor survey, Center had a nationwide rating of 27 percent and alliances and independents were backed by 25 percent of voters. If we add to this the 4 percent rating of the Free Party, which has said it intends to take part in the October municipal elections either as part of electoral alliances or as their backer depending on the municipality, 29 percent of respondents are prepared to vote for an electoral alliance or an independent candidate.

According to the same survey, 16 percent of voters nationwide would vote Reform, 12 percent Social Democrats (SDE), 9 percent Conservative People's Party (EKRE) and 6 percent Pro Patria and Res Publica Union (IRL). Twenty-two percent of respondents were unable to name their preference.

Local elections in Estonia will be held on Oct. 15 this year. Unlike in parliamentary elections, also permanent residents and holders of long-term residence permits of Estonia who are not citizens of the country can vote in local elections in Estonia.