RIGA - China is using the war in Ukraine to increase its army's readiness for war, says the Constitution Protection Bureau's annual public report 2024.
Chinese intelligence services collect both strategic and tactical information. Obtaining such information allows Beijing to learn from the practical experience of Russia and Ukraine on the battlefield and draw conclusions about how to effectively support Russia, the Constitution Protection Bureau has concluded.
China has clearly demonstrated that it values the stability of the Russian regime. The collapse of Putin's regime or its defeat by the West is seen as a significant geopolitical threat and a limiting factor for China's foreign policy goals, that is, transformation of the existing international order, says the report.
China is interested to maintain the existing political status quo in Russia as it supports China's strategic competition with the United States and efforts to transform the existing international order into a more favorable one to authoritarian regimes.
China also expects the cooperation with Russia to provide the necessary support in possible regional conflicts, for example, in Taiwan or other possible scenarios where China would face a loss of influence, especially on a regional scale, says the Constitution Protection Bureau.
The stability of the Russian regime is also closely related to the economic benefits needed by Beijing to tackle its domestic challenges.
China-Russia relations are a key element in Beijing's strategic rivalry with the United States in Southeast Asia and globally. In 2024, the "friendship without borders", declared by Beijing and Moscow shortly before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, continued to develop, deepening strategic coordination and cooperation in the economy and trade, investment and energy, as well as the military fields.
As the expanding Western sanctions have increased Russia's international isolation, China's economic relations with Russia have experienced significant growth. Beijing has replaced its previously cautious attitude towards Moscow's economic power with an increasing influence in the Russian economy.
In the first ten months of 2024, the value of the bilateral trade between China and Russia reached USD 202.2 billion, while the total trade volume has increased by 26.3 percent. This growth has contributed to increasingly asymmetric economic relations both in terms of import-export volume and commodity content.
China has increased the export of high-value-added and dual-use goods to Russia. Given its international position, China does not make direct military supplies to Russia, but public data indicate monthly exports of dual-use goods worth more than USD 300 million accounting for at least a third of China's total exports to Russia.
These goods have been identified as high-priority raw materials for production of weapons, including missiles and drones. Thus, Beijing is supporting Russia not only in circumventing the sanctions but also continuing the hostilities in Ukraine, explains the Constitution Protection Bureau.
Russia's fossil fuel exports to China account for 47 percent of its total exports. At the same time, China is actively limiting its potential dependence on Russian supplies, for example, by refusing to invest in the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project. Beijing is also gaining financial and economic advantages by purchasing the Russian gas at a reduced price (in 2025 it will continue to be approximately 35 percent lower than the price at which Moscow supplies gas to Europe).
Last year, China publicly agreed with Russia to strengthen military relations, increasing the number, scale, and complexity of joint military exercises. The two countries have also been conducting daily joint patrols in the Pacific Ocean.
China uses the joint exercises to demonstrate its military potential to deter the United States. The increased frequency and geographical locations of military exercises develop the coordination between the two countries' armed forces, enabling Beijing to demonstrate its military power in the region, including in the context of the Taiwan issue, notes the Constitution Protection Bureau.
China continues to focus on the modernization of its army. From a security perspective, China's relations with Russia are based on Moscow's support for the modernization and development of the Chinese military.
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