As Russia intensifies its hybrid warfare in Europe, more serious attacks could occur - Sarts

RIGA - As Russia intensifies its hybrid warfare in Europe, more serious attacks may be expected, explains Janis Sarts, director of NATO's Center of Excellence for Strategic Communications.

The expert noted on Twitter that reports of Russia's planned attacks on European countries have reappeared in foreign media in recent days.

There is talk of hybrid attacks, which Latvian officials have also warned about. Sarts, however, believes that hybrid attacks is not an accurate description of what is happening.

In his view, this intensification of reports most likely signifies the availability of new intelligence. Since a hybrid war is already underway in Europe, this signals Russia's decision to intensify it - more serious attacks, possible human casualties, and less caution when carrying out attacks, he concludes.

According to Sarts, the intelligence services apparently believe that efforts over the past few months to dissuade Russia from such an escalation have been unsuccessful. "Therefore, we must be prepared for such a turn of events," Sarts emphasizes.

He notes that the decisive factor in how the situation develops - should a larger-scale attack occur - will be how strong and painful the collective response is for Russia.

As reported, the number of Russian hybrid attacks against NATO member states has increased significantly, a high-ranking Alliance official revealed in September.

Last year alone, more than 200 such incidents were recorded, the official said, adding that this figure does not include routine cyberattacks. NATO headquarters, for its part, faces thousands of cyberattacks every month.

The official noted that Russia is attempting to undermine political and practical support for Ukraine and is preparing for a possible further escalation. In particular, Russia is spying on critical infrastructure and supply chains, as well as pre-deploying malware in key industrial control systems.

The Alliance is particularly concerned about changes in the nature of the attacks, the official revealed, explaining that the number of attacks is increasing, their severity is increasing, and the appetite for risk is increasing.

The Alliance is working to strengthen deterrence through military measures and improved protection of critical infrastructure. The Alliance also plans to establish a critical energy infrastructure network to share security information with operators and support joint emergency response exercises, defense against unmanned aerial vehicles, and cybersecurity.

In particularly serious cases, the Alliance's supreme military commander could ask member states to use offensive cyber capabilities, the official noted.

In August, the Constitutional Protection Bureau told LETA that Russia does not currently pose a direct military threat to Latvia, although a number of indicators point to potential long-term plans.

Kaspars Pudans, commander of the National Armed Forces, has also acknowledged that Latvia currently faces no direct military threat; however, the National Armed Forces are prepared for possible hybrid provocations by Russia.