Ukraine shows politically that with its military offensive in Kursk region it will not surrender - Dauksts

RIGA - With the military offensive in the Kursk region, Ukraine is showing politically that it will not surrender under any circumstances, political analyst and historian Karlis Dauksts told LETA.

He pointed out that the reasons for the Ukrainian invasion of Russian territory could be various - both military and political. Dauksts stressed that the Ukrainians are currently facing a difficult situation on the "traditional" front lines, where they are slowly, but nevertheless, retreating in the face of Russian troops. This suggests that Ukraine's intention was to draw some Russian troops away from the offensive lines towards the Kursk region.

The political analyst believes that this is also a political indicator that Ukraine will not give up and will fight, and that the war provoked by Russia may also be directed against the aggressor state itself, its peaceful population and the military-technological installations located on the territory.

In his view, the demonstration of Ukrainian capabilities is also a stabilizing factor in Ukraine itself, where there is a difficult situation with mobilization, because this step shows that Ukraine is capable. According to Dauksts, it is also a signal not only to Russia, but also to Ukraine's supporters, including the US and European countries: by demonstrating its capabilities, Ukraine is as if saying that it will demonstrate its capabilities even more and more strongly if it is allowed to use weapons and armaments that some countries do not allow to be used against Russia.

Asked what kind of response was expected from Russia, the political analyst noted that this event has a double meaning. On the one hand, it shows the unpreparedness and irresponsibility of Vladimir Putin and the military commanders, who are provoking the resentment of the population because they were promised protection but suddenly have to flee and leave their homes to go further away from the areas under fire in Kursk.

"But we must also take into account the Russian mentality - if we are hit, we must hit back. This logic of pseudo-patriotism can be beneficial for Putin and his co-runners, because Russia now has two options," the expert said.

The first is to declare war on Ukraine, which is a complex international document and requires a strong legal justification, he said. The second option is to announce a mobilization under the influence of this threat, which could be presented not as a desire by the Putin regime to de-militarize Ukraine but as a defense of "holy Russia", Dauksts said, adding that this could work on the patriotic masses who are in favor of the destruction of Ukraine.

Asked whether the redeployment of Ukrainian troops to the Kursk region could weaken positions in other "hot spots" in the country, the political analyst admitted that it was difficult to say at the moment, as he had no such military information at his disposal. According to some witnesses, there are two battalions in the Kursk region and the action is taking place in a narrow strip about ten kilometers wide. It is also not known how far into the Kursk area the Ukrainians have managed to penetrate, he explained.

"There is another circumstance to be taken into account, which will be speculated about and is already being speculated about, and that is the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). It is a hundred kilometers away from where the Ukrainian troops are at the moment. I do not think that the Kursk NPP is Ukraine's main target. I think it is more of a political-military move with quite a lot of propaganda overtones," the political analyst said.