Political scientists weigh in on Georgia reactions

Aug 25, 2008
In cooperation with BNS

2002 NATO Summit meeting

VILNIUS - International relations experts do not have a singular opinion on Russia's decision to suspend its cooperation with NATO: some say Lithuaniamust remain calm, others are looking forward to actions from the Lithuanian authorities.

"First off, NATO said it would have to postpone meetings of the NATO-Russia council. The Alliancethen declared it was recalling some of its military exercises. Russiaescalated and took a step further by declaring there would be no military cooperation with NATO," Docent at the International Relations and Political Sciences Institute of Vilnius University PhD Kestutis Girnius said.

He added that "Russia's position is like this: if the West is doing something, we can respond harder."

In the words of the IRPSI's lecturer, Lithuanian politicians should think about the current situation in the country and whether it feels any threat. In case it does, Girnius believes, "Lithuanian authorities should assign more funds for defense needs, cooperate closer with other countries, speak with NATO on deployment of some hardware in Lithuania."
Girnius also voiced doubt over the opposition parties' ideas regarding Lithuania's response, for instance, to ban Russian military transit through Lithuania's territory. "ShouldLithuania consider banning the transit, it ought to talk to NATO and its allies to realise what Russia's reaction might be. Russiawould respond not with military force, but it could cut down gas supply," the political scientist said.

PhD Ceslovas Laurinavicius, the head of the 20th Century History Department at the Lithuanian Institute of History was short-spoken on Russia's step: "There's nothing good out of it.".

"Everything is moving towards a regional or even global crisis that can lead to geopolitical changes disfavouring such small states, as ours is," the historian told BNS.

His estimate of Russia's conduct was similar to that of Girnius: "The Russians are responding to NATO's meeting that unilaterally condemned it. That is a provocative step," the historian said.

In his words, Lithuaniashould not ostentatiously aggravate its relations with Russia. "That is sawing the branch we are sitting on," Laurinavicius said.

An international law specialist, Head of the International and EU Law Department of the Law Faculty of Vilnius University Dainius Zalimas said that this is not the first time that Russiahas suspended cooperation with NATO.

  "When NATO used force against Yugoslavia in 1999 in order to put the genocide in Kosovo to an end, Russia also made loud statements and said it was suspending cooperation, including the activities of the then NATO-Russia cooperation council," Zalimas said.

On August 21, NATO's representative Carmen Romero said that Russia had declared it was suspending its military cooperation with Alliancenations until further notice.

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